In July, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Moscow and greeted Russian President Vladimir Putin with a bear hug. The same day, Russia launched deadly airstrikes across Ukraine, hitting the country’s largest children’s hospital and killing at least 41 people. Although Modi made a veiled reference to the strike and the casualties, his anodyne remark failed to deflect international criticism of his trip and his apparent bonhomie with Putin—especially from the United States.
In July, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Moscow and greeted Russian President Vladimir Putin with a bear hug. The same day, Russia launched deadly airstrikes across Ukraine, hitting the country’s largest children’s hospital and killing at least 41 people. Although Modi made a veiled reference to the strike and the casualties, his anodyne remark failed to deflect international criticism of his trip and his apparent bonhomie with Putin—especially from the United States.
Speaking at a defense forum in July, U.S. Ambassador to India Eric Garcetti was pointed in his criticism, reminding the audience that India’s ties with the United States could not be taken for granted, and that “no war remains distant anymore.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was more scathing about Modi’s embrace of Putin. “It is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day,” he said.
Although New Delhi publicly shrugged off the criticism, it was not lost on the Indian foreign-policy apparatus: On Friday, Modi will visit Zelensky in Kyiv. Modi and his advisors may think it is time to try to mend fences with Ukraine and the West more broadly. A trip to Kyiv could serve as a useful first step toward that end, and in some ways, it marks a striking departure in India’s foreign policy. Russia has long been a reliable partner to India, but it has often failed to deliver since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Modi and Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar have decided on a diplomatic gamble.
Other than deflecting global criticism, what explains Modi’s decision to undertake this mission? To start, the prime minister and his advisors may have determined that Moscow can no longer provide New Delhi with the military hardware that it needs in a timely fashion. India cannot afford to live with such uncertainty, especially as the threat from China—its principal long-term foe—has not abated. Even if Modi’s visit to Kyiv upsets Moscow, New Delhi can deal with any adverse political fallout, largely because under the current circumstances Russia has shown itself to be a wobbly partner.
Seeking to provide rationale for Modi’s trip to Russia, Indian policymakers invoked the country’s stated commitment to strategic autonomy. Pared to its core, this doctrine emphasizes a fiercely independent foreign policy. Yet in practice it has become mostly a shibboleth—and all too frequently a rationale for New Delhi pursuing ad hoc, transactional policies. This was evident after Russia’s full-scale invasion, when India cited its strategic autonomy to fend off criticism for purchasing Russian oil to address its critical domestic energy needs as global petroleum prices shot up.
Garcetti said the quiet part out loud when he argued that “in times of conflict, there is no such thing as strategic autonomy.” Despite minimizing such comments, officials in New Delhi are astute enough to recognize that U.S. patience with India is limited. India’s seeming bravura about how much it values its strategic autonomy aside, remaining in the good books of the United States is also one of its foreign-policy priorities, and Modi’s visit to Kyiv may reflect that.
Beyond these considerations, it is also possible that another important realization has belatedly dawned on India’s foreign-policy establishment: namely, that its ardent efforts to keep Russia from closing ranks with China are mostly a lost cause. Russia’s increasing diplomatic isolation as the war in Ukraine drags on means that it has few strategic partners left aside from China. Despite the time-honored Russia-India relationship, Moscow must see that New Delhi won’t just abandon its growing ties with Washington and the West.
In this context, it is worth noting that Modi and Putin accomplished little of substance at their meeting. The visit was high on pageantry—Russia conferred its highest civilian honor, the Order of St. Andrew the Apostle, on Modi—but low on material significance. Although India and Russia signed nine agreements, analysts have noted that they were mostly aspirational and lacked much weight. The inability to return home with any tangible accomplishments must have rankled policymakers in New Delhi.
Of course, it is unlikely that Modi’s meeting with Zelensky will result in substantial accomplishments, either. At best, India may offer Ukraine some humanitarian assistance. But on the global stage, such symbolic gestures matter, as they can send important political signals.
And with his visit to Kyiv, Modi may wish to signal to Russia that its bilateral ties with India cannot be taken for granted, just as the United States has telegraphed to India. Given recent Russian overtures to India’s other adversary, Pakistan, and Russia’s inability to sustain much-needed arms transfers, New Delhi has reason to reconsider its dependence on Moscow. Ironically, such a move away from the relationship may demonstrate a degree of genuine strategic autonomy in India’s foreign policy.
A final factor may be at play in Modi’s decision to visit Kyiv. Since taking office in 2014, the prime minister has put considerable stock in personal diplomacy. Few Indian leaders since former Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru have been as invested in diplomacy or traveled as frequently as Modi. As a result, he may have concluded that he can bring his personal charisma to bear to help bring an end to the war in Ukraine. In Kyiv, Modi is likely to pitch India as a potential mediator in the conflict, highlighting its historic ties to Russia and Modi’s own faith in the efficacy of personal diplomacy.
Given Russia’s intransigence, Modi’s diplomatic quest may turn out to be quixotic. The United States and much of the West may be skeptical of his ability to serve as an honest broker, given India’s past closeness with Russia. Nevertheless, Modi’s willingness to undertake this seemingly bold initiative as Ukraine has recently made a significant incursion into Russian territory could presage a significant shift in India’s studied neutrality in the conflict. Whether or not the visit turns out to be just symbolism may become clear only in the weeks and months ahead.
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