A leading bookmaker has given Vice President Kamala Harris odds of 50/1 (2 percent) of winning the seven key swing states of Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina and Nevada in November’s presidential election.
The odds were sent to Newsweek on Friday by William Hill, a U.K.-based betting company which also had Harris favorite to win all seven of the states individually over Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump.
Harris replaced Joe Biden as the Democrats presumptive presidential nominee after the White House incumbent announced he was stepping aside from the race, and offered her his endorsement, on July 21. In contrast to Biden, who generally trailed his Republican rival, Harris went on to outperform Trump in more than a dozen polls and became the favorite to win in November with multiple bookmakers.
Of the seven key swing states outlined by William Hill in 2016, all backed Trump bar Nevada, which was won by Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. In 2020, Biden then flipped Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, as well as holding Nevada, giving him the Electoral College votes needed to win the election.
As of Friday, William Hill was offering odds of 4/6 (60 percent) on Harris winning Georgia, 4/5 (55.6 percent) on her winning Arizona and 8/13 (61.9 percent) on the Democrat achieving victory in Wisconsin.
For Pennsylvania, William Hill had odds of 4/6 (60 percent) on a Harris win, along with 1/2 (66.7 percent) on her winning Michigan, 4/9 (69.2 percent) for North Carolina and 8/11 (57.9 percent) for Nevada.
Newsweek contacted the 2024 Kamala Harris and Donald Trump presidential election campaigns for comment via email on Saturday outside of regular business hours.
The most recent analysis of recent polling conducted by election focused website FiveThirtyEight, which was published on Friday, gave Harris a 2.6-point lead over Trump, with the vice president on 46.3 percent against 43.7 percent for her Republican challenger. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polled in third place with 5.1 percent of the vote.
However, due to the Electoral College system, a popular vote lead doesn’t necessarily mean Harris will win the election overall. In 2016, Trump defeated Clinton despite getting nearly 3 million fewer votes than her across the country.
This week, Trump conducted a major shakeup of his campaign team including bringing in Corey Lewandowski. In 2016, Lewandowski was fired as Trump’s campaign manager after being accused, but never charged, of assaulting a journalist. He was later removed from a pro-Trump super PAC in 2021 after allegedly groping a donor at an event in Las Vegas, but strongly denied the allegation.
According to Politico, the Trump campaign has also been joined by Alex Pfeiffer, Alex Bruesewitz and Taylor Budowich, who worked for the MAGA Inc. super PAC, as well as Tim Murtaugh who served as communications director to the then president’s 2020 re-election campaign.
A Outward Intelligence poll of 1,858 likely voters, conducted between August 11 and 15, found Harris had a lead of 13 points over Trump with female voters. By contrast, Trump had a lead of just one point over his Democratic rival with male voters.
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