Senator Jon Tester, a Democrat from Montana, has a 5-point lead over his Republican challenger Tim Sheehy in a crucial 2024 Senate election, a new poll shows.
A Napolitan News Service survey of 540 registered voters in Montana found that the incumbent was ahead of the Republican by 49 percent to 44 percent in what the polling group called the “most important Senate race” of the 2024 elections.
The outcome of November’s Senate race in Montana, a state Donald Trump won by 16 points in 2020, could end up determining which party controls the upper chamber.
The Democrats control the Senate by a 51-49 seat margin, including four independent senators who caucus or align with the party.
With the GOP widely expected to flip the West Virginia seat held by outgoing independent Senator Joe Manchin—giving Republicans an estimated 50 seats—the results of the presidential election between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris and the outcome of the Montana Senate race may be the deciding factors for how the next Congress operates.
If control of the Senate comes down to the results of those races and Tester is reelected in Montana but Trump wins the presidency, the GOP will have control in a 50-50 split, with Vice President JD Vance acting as the tiebreaker on votes.
If Harris wins the presidential election, Democratic Vice President Tim Walz will be the Senate tiebreaker in a 50-50 split. So the GOP would need to flip West Virginia and Montana to achieve outright control.
“Of the several races considered toss-ups or competitive, most are leaning toward the Democrats at this time. Montana is likely the best opportunity for Republicans and the biggest risk for Democrats,” a Napolitan News Service spokesperson said in a statement.
Newsweek has contacted Tester’s and Sheehy’s offices for comment via email.
Despite Tester holding a 5-point lead in the Montana Senate race, the Napolitan News Service said the “political gravity” of the election indicated it would still be competitive.
“If Montana voters knew that their vote would determine control of the U.S. Senate, 55 percent would vote for the Republican, and just 37 percent would vote for the Democrat,” the polling group said. It added that “17 percent of Tester’s voters would prefer GOP control of the Senate.”
The poll showed Trump as highly likely to win Montana again in November, with the former president leading Harris by 53 percent to 35 percent.
The survey also found that 16 percent of Trump voters planned to vote for Tester in the Montana Senate race.
The Napolitan News Service survey was conducted between August 6 and 14. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
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