Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Africa Brief.
The highlights this week: President Kais Saied allows only two opponents in Tunisia’s election, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia plan to attend Sudan peace talks in Geneva, and Ethiopia announces a mega-airport.
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Macron Backs Moroccan Plan on Western Sahara
Algeria began blocking deportations of its citizens from France this week in the latest escalation of tensions over Paris’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty in the disputed Western Sahara.
French President Emmanuel Macron sent Moroccan King Mohammed VI a letter backing a plan that Morocco proposed in 2007 to offer Western Sahara limited autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty. In the letter—which was made public on July 30—Macron called it the “only basis” for resolving the conflict. “France intends to act consistently with this position at both national and international level,” he wrote.
Algeria is now refusing to take back citizens given deportation orders by France. Algiers had already recalled its ambassador to France at the end of July. The two nations had a similar immigration spat in 2021 that lasted well over a year, and a history before that of frequent tensions ever since Algeria’s independence from France in 1962.
Morocco annexed Western Sahara, a former Spanish colony, in 1975. It did so as Spain was preparing to withdraw from the territory. Morocco now controls around 80 percent of the region, which boasts substantial mineral deposits and rich Atlantic fishing grounds.
Neighboring Algeria backs Western Sahara’s Polisario Front, which has sought full independence since the 1970s and the right to self-determination for the people of Western Sahara. Algeria hosts more than 100,000 Sahrawis living in refugee camps in its territory.
However, since former U.S. President Donald Trump’s recognition of its claims in December 2020, Morocco has become more aggressive with expansive construction projects in the disputed territory. Trump reportedly agreed that the United States would recognize Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara in exchange for Rabat’s normalization of ties with Israel, which further fueled hostilities. It also broke international consensus on a U.N.-supervised referendum on the conflict that had stalled for decades. Since then, Morocco has built ports, highways, and luxury hotels in the disputed territory.
In response, Polisario renewed armed conflict in 2020, ending a U.N.-brokered cease-fire that had been established in 1991. The Polisario’s Mohamed Sidati, the foreign minister of the self-declared Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic of Western Sahara, accused Paris of backing Moroccan expansionism as France’s influence deteriorates across Africa.
“Whatever hardships Morocco tries to impose on us with the support of France, the Sahrawi people will continue to stubbornly defend their rights until they obtain the definitive departure of the Moroccan aggressor from their territory and general recognition of the legitimacy of their struggle for self-determination and independence,” Sidati said in a statement last month.
Spain backed Morocco’s claim in 2022. But France’s move has been described as a game-changer that other nations may follow, given Paris’s role as a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council. The decision will to some extent appease a Moroccan population pressuring the government due to citizens’ anger about Israel’s war in Gaza.
France’s move may be related to trade. Morocco offered French companies access to renewable energy projects—in particular, green hydrogen. The country is also rich in minerals critical to the energy transition, such as phosphate, cobalt, and manganese. Some political observers view the change in position as necessary to secure French access to phosphate investments and a $1.2 billion port in Dakhla, Western Sahara, which is expected to boost trade.
It’s unknown whether Algeria would sacrifice its own trade deals to show its anger. The country has become the European Union’s third-largest gas supplier since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Prior to the latest spat, France had sought to increase its supply of Algerian gas, which currently accounts for less than 10 percent of its gas usage.
Wednesday, Aug. 14: U.S.-led Sudan peace talks, co-hosted by Switzerland and Saudi Arabia, are held in Geneva.
U.N. Security Council holds a briefing on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan.
Thursday, Aug. 15: Nigeria’s statistics office plans to release latest inflation data.
Saturday, Aug. 17: African leaders attend a summit of regional bloc Southern African Development Community, held in Harare, Zimbabwe.
Sudan peace talks. Fresh cease-fire talks are slated to go ahead today in Geneva without the Sudanese army. Negotiations on Sunday between Sudan’s military government and U.S. officials in Jeddah ended without an agreement on the Sudanese army’s participation in the U.S.-led peace talks.
According to the Sudan Tribune, the army wanted the Geneva talks to focus on implementing the Jeddah agreement—signed in May 2023—in which both warring parties would vacate all public facilities, such as hospitals and energy grid infrastructure. Meanwhile, the United States, led by special envoy Tom Perriello, wants to achieve a cease-fire and the opening of humanitarian corridors.
The power struggle broke out between Sudan’s army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in April last year. The United Arab Emirates—which backs the RSF—as well as Egypt and Saudi Arabia—which support the Sudanese army—plan to attend the talks. The RSF, led by Gen. Mohamed Hamdan “Hemeti” Dagalo, has said it will send representatives, but security analysts believe that the Sudanese army’s de facto leader, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, is under pressure from Sudan’s Islamist movement. One retired Sudanese general has said that the country’s Muslim Brotherhood is firmly against ending the war and wants an outright win.
Tunisia’s ‘one-man’ show. Tunisia’s electoral commission cleared only two candidates to run against incumbent President Kais Saied in elections scheduled for Oct. 6, a decision that came after rejecting 14 others. One of the candidates, Zouhair Magzhaou, is perceived as Saied’s ally, having supported his policies in the past, while the other, Ayachi Zammel, is not regarded as particularly influential.
Several of Saied’s opponents are in prison, including four potential candidates sentenced to eight months in prison last week on charges of vote buying. Saied has replaced parliamentary officials at whim since his power grab in July 2021. He sacked Prime Minister Ahmed Hachani last Wednesday and replaced him with the social affairs minister, Kamel Madouri, who only took on the social affairs role in May. No reason was given for the dismissal. Hachani took office on Aug. 1 last year after replacing Najla Bouden, who was also fired by Saied without an official reason.
Prices soar after Ethiopia’s IMF deal. The Ethiopian birr lost 60 percent of its value against the U.S. dollar in recent weeks as of Monday, causing some businesses and supermarkets to hoard basic goods. More than 3,000 stores accused of hoarding have been shuttered across the country. The country’s trade bureau said it would crack down on individuals taking advantage of price hikes. Ethiopia unlocked more than $20 billion in financing from the International Monetary Fund and World Bank last week after agreeing to float its currency against the dollar.
The UAE plans to help Ethiopia design what would become Africa’s biggest airport in a deal announced Friday by state-owned Ethiopian Airlines. The airport, expected to cost at least $6 billion, will have capacity to handle 100 million passengers a year and will be located near the town of Bishoftu, around 28 miles from the capital, Addis Ababa. Dubai-based engineering and consulting firm Sidara has been tapped to design plans for the airport, which is scheduled to be built in five years (and completed in 2029). Ethiopian Airlines is one of Africa’s most successful state-owned carriers, with $7 billion in revenue reported for its 2023-24 financial year—an increase of 14 percent from last year.
U.S. investment in Africa’s economic development, including infrastructure, has lagged behind that of China. While Washington has focused far more on health and humanitarian aid, there is consensus that an effective U.S. strategy for Africa must prioritize road, power, and water networks, which have greater long-term benefits.
FP’s Most Read This Week
China’s educational diplomacy. China is funding and building more leadership schools across Africa, reports Jevans Nyabiage in South China Morning Post. The Chinese Communist Party has increased its training of party and government officials from Algeria, Morocco, South Africa, Kenya, and Zimbabwe, among other nations. Sources told SCMP that the leadership academies are “a calculated move aimed at positively influencing the leaders of tomorrow on the continent.”
Fighting corruption in Malawi. High-profile politicians continue to be protected from Malawi’s fight against corruption, argues Madalitso Wills Kateta in Foreign Policy.
Corruption charges against Malawi’s late vice president, Saulos Chilima, were dropped weeks before he was killed in a plane crash. Former Anti-Corruption Bureau chief Martha Chizuma did not renew her four-year tenure in May after audio was leaked in which she suggested that high-ranking officials were obstructing justice. “Malawi is plagued by a web of vested interests and power dynamics that often obscure the pursuit of justice,” writes Kateta.
U.K.’s far-right riots. In Foreign Policy, Patrick Egwu and John Chukwu report on Nigerian migrants living in the United Kingdom and their fears of ongoing anti-migrant riots. The U.K. hosts a large number of Nigerian students, who said they were avoiding certain areas or staying home to keep safe. Sierra Leone, Kenya, and Nigeria have issued warnings against travel to the United Kingdom following the outbreak of race riots and looting.
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