Moscow has begun withdrawing some troops from Ukraine in an effort to repel Kyiv’s offensive into western Russia, according to United States and Ukrainian officials, but it remains unclear what impact, if any, these troop movements might have on the overall battlefield.
Dmytro Lykhovii, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Army, told the Ukrainian news media on Tuesday that Russia had moved some units from the southern Ukrainian regions of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro to other areas of the fighting. That included the Kursk region of western Russia, where the incursion has taken place, he said.
A United States official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive security matters, said that Russia had pulled out small numbers of troops from Ukraine, but he did not specify their location or the number of soldiers involved.
Analysts say that one of the goals of the Ukrainian offensive is to draw Russian forces away from the front lines in Ukraine to relieve Ukrainian troops struggling to push back relentless Russian attacks. But it is too early to say whether the latest Russian troop movements will allow that to happen, they say.
In particular, there is little sign that Moscow has redeployed troops from eastern Ukraine, where Russia has been steadily advancing in recent months. Instead, the Russian Army appears to have sent in reinforcements drawn mainly from less combat-ready units based in northern Russia and Ukraine, military experts say.
“The Russian strategy is to avoid drawing from units in the Donetsk direction as much as possible,” said Serhii Kuzan, the chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center, an independent research group, referring to the region in eastern Ukraine that is on the front line. “The Russians are reluctant to do this, because it would jeopardize all the gains of their summer offensive campaign.”
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, said that the Russian authorities “appear to be largely relying on Russian conscripts, and elements of some regular and irregular military units pulled from less critical sectors of the front line to address the ongoing Ukrainian incursion.”
Lithuania’s defense minister, Laurynas Kasciunas, said on Tuesday that Russia was moving troops from its Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad to Kursk. Mr. Kasciunas was visiting President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv.
Ukrainian military officials said that Russian assaults in the Donetsk region had continued unabated over the past week, despite the new Ukrainian offensive. Russian troops have continued to slowly advance in or toward the frontline towns of Chasiv Yar, Niu York, Pokrovsk and Toretsk, they say.
Oleksandr Bordiian, a spokesman for the 32nd Separate Mechanize Brigade, which is fighting near Toretsk, told the Ukrainian news media on Tuesday that Ukraine’s attacks in the Kursk region “have not yet had any impact on the density of assaults and shelling in our direction.”
After quick gains in the first day of its offensive, the Ukrainian advances in Russia’s Kursk region appear to have slowed, according to maps of the battlefield compiled by independent analysts. France’s defense ministry said on Monday that Kyiv’s forces “appear to have reduced the pace of their initial advance, but are consolidating their positions.”
Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group, which analyzes footage from the battlefield, said on Tuesday evening that an attack by Ukrainian troops on Giri, a village southeast of the initial Ukrainian assault and about eight miles from the Ukrainian border, had likely been repelled. “They suffered significant losses and likely had to retreat,” Mr. Kastehelmi wrote on social media.
Ukrainian troops have carried out several raids in and around the Kursk region in what appears to be a strategy of probing and destabilizing Russian defenses. After several days of Ukrainian attacks on the neighboring Belgorod region, the regional governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov, declared a state of emergency on Wednesday.
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