Tropical Storm Ernesto formed in the Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles east of Antigua on Monday, the fifth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Ernesto formed a little more than a week after Hurricane Debby hit the coast of Florida and moved across the Southeastern United States, bringing devastating flooding to parts of the Carolinas and elsewhere. Ernesto is not expected to threaten the mainland United States, but tropical storm warnings are in effect for Puerto Rico, Guadeloupe; St. Martin and St. Barthelemy; Sint Maarten; the British and U.S. Virgin Islands; Vieques; Culebra; and St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla.
The National Hurricane Center said Ernesto was moving rapidly toward the northern Leeward Islands, where it was expected to deliver strong winds and heavy rains beginning late Monday night and into Tuesday before moving toward the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening.
“The big impact from Ernesto is going to be the rainfall,” said Michael Brennan, director of the National Hurricane Center, in an update early Monday evening.
Four to six inches of rain were predicted to fall over parts of the Leeward and Virgin Islands, while Puerto is bracing for a maximum of 10 inches in some areas. Heavy rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding and mudslides in the Leeward and Virgin Islands through Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into Thursday, the National Hurricane Center said.
The Associated Press reported that Puerto Rico activated its National Guard and canceled the start of classes in public schools.
This hurricane season is expected to be busy.
Forecasters have warned that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season could be much more active than usual.
Alberto, the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, made landfall on the northeastern coast of Mexico as a tropical storm on June 20, unleashing heavy rain, flooding and gusty winds. At least four people died in events related to the storm.
Beryl formed a little over a week later, on June 28, and became the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record. It carved a path of destruction through the Caribbean before crossing into the Gulf of Mexico and hitting the Texas coast.
In July, Tropical Storm Chris formed just before making landfall in Mexico.
Debby was the latest storm to make landfall, moving ashore on Aug. 5 in Florida, and then meandering around the southern U.S. with flooding rains for days.
Earlier this month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration continued its forecast of 17 to 24 named storms this year, an “above-normal” number and a prediction in line with more than a dozen forecasts earlier in the year from experts at universities, private companies and government agencies. Hurricane seasons produce 14 named storms on average from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The seasonal hurricane outlooks were notably aggressive because forecasters looking at the start of the season saw a combination of circumstances that didn’t exist in records dating back to the mid-1800s: record warm water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the potential formation of the weather pattern known as La Niña.
La Niña occurs in the Pacific because of changing ocean temperatures, and it affects weather patterns globally. When it is strong, it typically provides a calm environment in the Atlantic; this allows storms to develop more easily and to strengthen without interference from wind patterns that might otherwise keep them from organizing.
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