Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: In the wake of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s resignation, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi plans a potential trip to Ukraine and Bangladesh’s interim government takes shape amid political crisis.
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On Monday, Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina reacted as she had so many other times when faced with anti-government resistance: She vowed to use a heavy hand, undeterred by the officials who insisted it was no longer tenable for police to use force against protesters after a day in which nearly 100 people had died in civil unrest.
The night before Hasina resigned, Bangladesh’s army chief told her that he would no longer implement her lockdown orders. Soon afterward, Hasina’s son convinced her to step down. She boarded a helicopter with her sister and flew to India. It’s fitting that the final act of Hasina—once a global democracy icon—was to double down on the autocratic policies that defined her final years in power.
In a 1975 coup, Bangladesh’s military assassinated Hasina’s father, independence hero Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, and killed most of her family. Hasina, who was abroad at the time, vowed to pursue a political career. In 1981, she returned to a country under military rule as the newly elected leader of the Awami League, the party that fought for Bangladesh’s independence.
As opposition leader, Hasina advocated forcefully for the restoration of democracy while condemning the military’s excesses. In November 1990, she helped draft a multiparty declaration calling on Bangladesh’s last military leader, Hussain Muhammad Ershad, to resign; he stepped down the next month.
Hasina lost national elections in 1991 to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which intensified a growing rivalry between the Awami League and the BNP.
Khaleda Zia, the head of the BNP, is the widow of Ziaur Rahman, a military officer who played a role in the 1975 coup and ascended to the presidency in 1977; he was assassinated in 1981. Hasina won elections in 1996 and lost again to Zia in 2001. Both politicians spent time in jail in 2007 and 2008, when a military-backed interim government held power. On Tuesday, Zia—who was convicted on corruption charges in 2018—was released from house arrest.
Hasina won national elections in 2008 and took office in January 2009, where she remained until Monday. In those 15 years, her party ultimately cracked down hard on the political opposition, and increasingly on dissent more broadly, using arrests, enforced disappearances, media censorship, and digital security laws to suppress criticism of the government.
Hasina was reelected three times after that, but the polls were often seen as not free or fair. Still, she retained a large support base, thanks to patronage but also real governance successes—including Bangladesh’s much-ballyhooed economic growth story.
Many of Hasina’s backers pointed to democratic achievements, but most warrant caveats. Women’s economic empowerment helped fuel Bangladesh’s growth, but the overall status of women remained shaky in the country, which has one of the world’s highest child marriage rates. Hasina cracked down on extremists who attacked religious minorities and free speech advocates, but her scorched-earth counterterrorism tactics drew concern from human rights groups.
Ultimately, Hasina’s mission to implement her father’s democratic vision was eclipsed by something very different: a vow, borne out of her tragic past, to become the strongest possible leader and to protect herself from all perceived threats. She amassed immense power, and that led to autocratic tendencies and brutality.
On Tuesday, Bangladesh’s president announced that Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus will lead an interim government; he is perhaps the country’s most famous citizen. Leaders of the movement that ousted Hasina hope that democracy can now be restored, but that may be a tall order. The BNP, which will likely play a prominent role in the future, has a poor track record on rights and democracy.
Furthermore, Bangladesh’s army, which has largely stayed out of politics since 2008, is now overseeing the formation of the interim government. Emboldened Islamist extremists, exploiting the unrest, staged attacks against the Hindu community this week. Democracy in Bangladesh may be tough to resuscitate.
Modi likely to visit Ukraine. Indian media are reporting that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Ukraine later this month, possibly on Aug. 23. If confirmed, the visit would be his first to the country since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. It would also come several weeks after his controversial visit to Moscow for a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Only a small number of world leaders, including those from Turkey and Indonesia, have visited both Russia and Ukraine since the start of the war. If Modi follows through, it could help blunt some reputational damage: Many Western governments didn’t like him warmly embracing Putin in Moscow, especially on a day when a Russian missile attack hit a children’s hospital in Kyiv.
The visit would also rekindle speculation about India wanting to position itself as a potential mediator in the conflict. New Delhi has deep ties to Moscow and cordial relations with Kyiv. It has a strong interest in seeing the war end: It has brought Russia closer to India’s rival China, produced negative economic shocks, and complicated India’s balancing act on the global stage.
Modi has repeatedly called for the war to end, and he has suggested a willingness to be an intermediary. However, India would only seriously consider such a role if asked by both Russia and Ukraine, neither of which has indicated any interest so far.
Dhaka’s interim government. Hasina’s resignation created a massive political vacuum, which is for now filled by Bangladesh’s president (a ceremonial post) and army chief. They are leading efforts to form a new interim government, which is expected to be sworn in on Thursday. Protest leaders have called for the administration to include leaders from civil society and academia, in addition to party representation.
It is unclear how long the interim government will be in power. Hasina’s term was not scheduled to end until 2029. The Awami League likely won’t be part of the interim government, as its leaders have not been included in initial negotiations over its formation. On Tuesday, Hasina’s foreign minister, Hasan Mahmud, and IT minister, Zunaid Ahmed Palak, were arrested as they tried to leave the country.
Zia’s release from house arrest is a major symbolic victory for the weak and divided BNP, although her poor health may limit her ability to play a major role. Meanwhile, Yunus, who will lead the interim government, was a harsh critic of Hasina and was saddled with legal charges that his supporters dismiss as politically motivated.
India’s dilemma. India enjoyed a special partnership with Hasina and her party and will be deleteriously affected by her resignation, as FP’s Sumit Ganguly writes. Modi had a close personal relationship with Hasina, in part due to their convergent views about political Islam. New Delhi has long viewed any political alternative to Hasina as detrimental to its interests.
With Hasina and the Awami League out of the political picture for now, India will need to carefully cultivate ties with political stakeholders—including the BNP, which it has kept at arm’s length. New Delhi has likely engaged with the army and president to ensure that its interests are taken into account, but its leverage in Dhaka has decreased.
India will also worry about security risks, including threats against Hindus and anti-India sentiment, as well as border stability. New Delhi may be concerned that continued unrest in Bangladesh could increase refugee flows across a frontier that has been a tension point even in the best of circumstances.
One of the potential challenges emerging from the political crisis in Bangladesh relates to the civil war in neighboring Myanmar. The conflict has started to have spillover effects in Bangladesh, including several people killed by cross-border shelling.
But the Bangladesh military, which usually has a large border presence, is now diverted and distracted. Hasina ordered border troops to deploy elsewhere to assist in her government’s crackdown on protesters. With the army overseeing the formation of an interim government, the military has had to further redirect attention away from the border.
Of particular concern are recent reports that Myanmar’s Rohingya minority community is under threat from intensifying fighting. This increases the possibility of more Rohingya refugees fleeing into Bangladesh, as hundreds of thousands did amid Myanmar military violence in 2017.
With Bangladesh’s military focused on urgent political matters and issues of law and order, the dearth of military personnel at the border becomes risky—especially when combined with insufficient policy bandwidth back in Dhaka to manage another serious crisis.
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