After breezing through group play, the U.S. women’s soccer team got a reminder last Saturday that knockout-round soccer is a different beast.
The USWNT, which was as short as -600 to advance past Japan in the quarterfinals, nearly needed PKs to break a 0-0 deadlock that held for more than 105 minutes.
But in the 107th minute of that game, 22-year-old Trinity Rodman delivered a stunning far-post strike from just outside the 6-yard box to send her team through to the semis at the expense of Japan, who until then had looked poised to pull off a massive upset.
Rodman’s heroics helped Manager Emma Hayes and the Americans reach the semifinals, where they’ll meet Germany on Tuesday, August 6, at 12 p.m. ET on USA Network.
USA vs. Germany Olympic Soccer Betting Odds
DK, FD and bet365 each also offer odds to go through for bettors who simply want to pick the winner.
USA odds to advance (best odds in bold):
- DK: -195
- FD: -230
- bet365: -200
Germany odds to advance
- DK: +155
- FD: +184
- bet365: +150
USA-Germany Olympic Semifinal Betting Analysis
USA, which have been seen as the co-favorite along with Spain — or a close second-favorite after 2023 World Cup champion La Roja, depending on the sportsbook — weren’t the only heavy favorite that nearly got sent home much sooner than expected last weekend.
Spain, which was -1000 to advance (FanDuel) going into its quarterfinal match against Colombia, trailed 2-0 at one point and needed PKs to prevail.
Now, both USA and Spain enter the semifinals as heavy favorites to meet in the Olympic women’s soccer Gold Medal Match scheduled for Saturday at Paris’s Parc des Princes on USA Network. (Spain is -175 on the three-way moneyline (FanDuel) in its semifinal match against Brazil).
The USWNT meets a familiar foe in Germany, which it beat 4-1 on July 28 in a match it led 3-1 at halftime. This is not the first time in recent years that these two countries have met in a high-stakes match, as they also squared off in the Women’s World Cup semifinals back in 2015, with USA winning that one 2-0.
How will Germany defend USA’s potent front line?
While the U.S.’s top defenders in this tournament — Crystal Dunn, Naomi Girma, Emily Fox, Emily Sonnett and Tierna Davidson — have been rock-solid, combining with keeper Alyssa Naeher to concede just two goals in four matches, Rodman and the young front line have been the story of the Olympics for the Americans.
Mallory Swanson, at age 26, is the oldest of the bunch. Swanson, Rodman and 23-year-old Sophia Smith each have a total of four goals and assists in four matches. In fact, of the 10 goals and seven assists this entire roster has produced to date, the Smith-Swanson-Rodman trio has accounted for all but two of the goals and four of the seven assists that the USWNT has recorded.
Germany shut out Australia in its Olympic opener, blew out Zambia 4-1 in group play and squeaked by Canada 0-0 (4-2 PKs) in the quarterfinals. Manager Horst Hrubesch’s team has been stout defensively all tournament, but could not contain the young American forwards when these teams met on July 28.
Smith, Swanson and Rodman all scored in the first half of that match, and Swanson assisted veteran sub Lynn Williams for the U.S. goal that made it 4-1 in the 89th minute.
Even if Germany is able to keep the Americans in check, one goal might be all it takes (once again) for the U.S. to survive and advance.
USA-Germany Olympic Semifinal Best Bets
Given that only one of the four quarterfinal Olympic women’s soccer matches, a 1-0 win by Brazil over France, was settled after 90 minutes, it’s risky to take USA to win in 90. That being said, bettors have good reason to trust this team given how well it played against Germany just nine days ago.
Below are a few enticing value plays for what should be a close match:
- Both teams to score — No (-110 at DraftKings) Note: this is outstanding value, as FD offers BTTS No at -124, while this prop is priced at -138 at bet365.
- USA moneyline (+105 at FanDuel)
- USA win to zero (+185 at DraftKings)
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