It’s tempting to believe that the latest escalation in the Middle East, which threatens once again to engulf the entire region in war, killed the prospects of a long-term cease-fire in Gaza and the return of Israeli hostages held there—some 115, according to the official count.
But the painful truth is that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been sabotaging efforts at a deal for months, spurning advice from his generals, and conditioning the Israeli public to accept the idea that the hostages should not be prioritized.
He has done all that by stoking divisions in Israeli society—including within the group that represents families of the Israeli hostages—and rejecting any terms for a cease-fire, including those put forward by the United States, Israel’s staunchest ally. As a result, it could be months or even years before the remaining hostages return to their families. Some might never come home.
For close watchers of this country, the fact that Israelis have come to accept this reality is nothing short of shocking. For almost as long as the country has existed, the social contract has included a commitment to retrieving hostages or prisoners from enemy hands by almost any means necessary. Usually that has meant rescuing them or agreeing to lopsided prisoner swaps.
But Netanyahu, in his fight for political survival after the Hamas attack of Oct. 7, 2023, has shown a willingness to sacrifice even the country’s core principles—and its most vulnerable citizens.
“Every time the deal is near, he adds new preconditions that torpedo the deal,” a former top official for Mossad, Israel’s national intelligence agency, told us recently, referring to Netanyahu.
Hamas and other gunmen from Gaza killed more than 1,200 people during their surprise incursion into southern Israel on Oct. 7. They also dragged away 251 hostages and a number of corpses—hoping to exchange them for Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.
The hostage crisis loomed large in the first weeks of the war, and negotiations got underway quickly, mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States. In a temporary truce deal reached in November and supported by most Israelis, Hamas freed more than 100 women and children in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian women and minors imprisoned by Israel. Since then, Israel has managed to rescue a handful of additional hostages.
Israeli officials estimate that only about half of the remaining 115 hostages have survived the fighting in Gaza so far. Negotiations for their release have been intermittent, with both Israel and Hamas putting up obstacles.
But analysts believe something has changed in Netanyahu’s approach to the hostage issue since that first deal in November. Instead of prioritizing their release, he has come to view a long-term cease-fire with Hamas—and an accompanying hostage deal—as politically risky. In recent months, he has downplayed the hostage issue and dwelled instead on the need for Israel to achieve a “total victory” over Hamas—even as military officials and analysts say the goal is out of reach.
“For [Netanyahu], the end of the war or a long-term cease-fire would be a political death certificate. His messianic partners will leave the government, and he will be forced out the door,” the retired Mossad official said. Netanyahu’s coalition includes far-right religious parties that oppose cease-fire efforts and hold the key to his parliamentary majority.
For families of the hostages, watching Netanyahu put the issue on the back burner has been excruciating. Many of them take part in weekly protests around the country, urging the Israeli leader to accept a cease-fire deal that would bring the hostages home.
“Everyone knows that you [Netanyahu] decided to sacrifice the hostages on the altar of your own political survival. You prefer to drag Israel toward an escalation [of war] instead of signing a deal which will prevent it,” said Einav Zangauker, the mother of one of the hostages, speaking at a recent rally in Tel Aviv. “Because of you, the hostages are subjected to torture or worse and will die in captivity.” Zangauker, whose 24-year-old son, Matan, is still being held in Gaza, told us that she considered Netanyahu “the most cruel prime minister” in Israel’s 76-year history.
Most of Israel’s current and former security chiefs say privately that Netanyahu is driven by his own quest to remain in power and not by the best interests of the hostages or the country.
The serving heads of Israel’s security agencies have repeatedly told Netanyahu that gaining the release of hostages is not only a moral obligation but a decision that would improve Israel’s strategic posture at home and abroad, according to Israeli media and our own sources. Netanyahu has rejected their recommendations and described his critics as “weak.”
Several of the security chiefs have considered taking responsibility for the failures of Oct. 7 and stepping down, according to their own public comments. But they must surely worry that Netanyahu would replace them with cronies, making the chances of a hostage agreement even slimmer.
In the meantime, the public campaign for a hostage deal has diminished. Families keep protesting, joined by anti-Netanyahu demonstrators who demand early elections, but much of the wider public appears to have given up hope.
Within Netanyahu’s government, a few far-right politicians are increasingly viewing the war as an opportunity to finally annex the West Bank and perhaps the Gaza Strip as well. Netanyahu has said Israel would not rule Gaza in the long term, but he needs the support of the far-right factions in order to continue governing. Netanyahu faces criminal charges of fraud and bribery, in a slow-moving trial that began four years ago. Losing his hold on power would potentially make it harder for him to fight the criminal charges.
Netanyahu has ruled the country, in total, for more than 16 years. He claims that he is uniquely qualified to address Israel’s problems, including a war on multiple fronts—Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Iran, and the West Bank. But the internal divisions he has stoked are taking a toll on the country. While the Oct. 7 attack appeared to unite Israelis, the ongoing war, the agonizing over the hostage ordeal, and frustrations with the government have created a domestic crisis that might be deeper than any Israel has experienced since its founding. It’s not unusual to hear Israelis talk about examples in Jewish history when internal divisions led to national tragedies—including the Roman destruction of the Temple in Jerusalem in 70 C.E. and the subsequent banishment of Jews from their homeland.
Netanyahu invokes this history in his speeches, but it rings hollow to many Israelis. “He is a real threat to the very existence of Israel,” said Yair Golan, a retired general who now leads the left-center Democrats.
“As far as he is concerned, the future of Israel is only secondary to his personal fate. … Like many leaders throughout history who stay too long in power, he is living in his own bubble and became detached from reality.”
The post Israel’s Chances of Getting Hostages Back Are Fading appeared first on Foreign Policy.
