Just when the engravers were preparing to etch Aaron Judge’s name on the 2024 American League MVP trophy, a new rival declared it a race.
Bobby Witt Jr. was named AL Player of the Month for July on Saturday. Witt, 24, had never won a Player of the Month Award before, and he’s the first Royals player to take home the honor since Billy Butler in Sept. 2009.
Kansas City’s 14 consecutive years without a Player of the Month Award was the longest active streak in the Majors.
It might not be the last major award Witt wins this year.
In the all-important race for Wins Above Replacement, Judge currently leads Witt 7.6 to 7.2 according to Baseball Reference. According to FanGraphs, however, Witt leads Judge, 7.7 to 7.4. Witt is also the leader according to Baseball Prospectus’ equivalent stat (WARP).
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With the difference between the two players so marginal by each website’s metric, the focus is less on who’s leading than their margin for error. Judge used the monster months of May and June to establish himself as the runaway favorite in the race. With Witt’s surprising July performance, he’s turned it into a contest.
Witt led the AL in batting average (.489), on-base percentage (.520), slugging (.833), OPS (1.353), hits (44), total bases (75), and runs last month. No Royals player had a batting average that high in a single month since George Brett in July 1980.
The cherry on top: Witt interrupted his torrid stretch of regular-season games to compete in the All-Star Game and Home Run Derby, where he narrowly finished as the runner-up to winner Teoscar Hernández.
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Historically, the tie in an MVP race between two candidates with similar statistics has gone to the player whose team is higher in the standings. But that is of little help here. Both the Yankees (66-46) and the Royals (62-49) are relevant in their divisional and Wild Card races.
Voting for the BBWAA awards is distributed evenly by geography, with voters from every major league market represented. That has helped to suppress some of the “East Coast bias” that persists in other end-of-season awards in other sports.
Assuming their teams continue their success into October, the race between Judge and Witt could boil down to a matter of taste. Witt is the better defender at a premium position (shortstop). Judge is the better power hitter; he hit his MLB-leading 41st home run Saturday.
Judge is the more established player, having won the AL MVP award in 2022. Witt represents the future of a Royals franchise that hasn’t been to the postseason since it captured its last World Series ring in 2015.
After a mammoth month, Witt also represents a surprisingly bright present in Kansas City.
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