Ukraine’s campaign to replenish its war-weary troops is ramping up and should help fill personnel gaps on the front line in the coming weeks, according to Ukrainian officials, soldiers and military analysts.
The mobilization push has so far not significantly bolstered Ukraine’s forces on the battlefield, those people say. Many conscripts are still completing the weekslong training process and have yet to reach the front. And some recruits who have arrived are not physically fit for combat, members of Ukrainian units have noted.
But several brigades deployed on the battlefield have reported an increase in the number of conscripts they have received in recent weeks. They said they were hoping that the influx of soldiers would help Ukraine to stabilize the front line this summer.
Nazar Voytenkov, press officer for the 33rd Mechanized Brigade, said on Friday that his unit had “received more newbies this month” than they had at the beginning of the year. “And today I was told that more are coming to us,” he added.
The Ukrainian authorities have declined to share conscription figures, arguing that the information is confidential. Three military experts with knowledge of the figures said that Kyiv had been drafting up to 30,000 people a month since May, when a new conscription law took effect. That is two to three times more than during the last winter months, they said, and about the same number that the Russian Army is recruiting each month. That figure could not be independently confirmed.
The experts spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the confidential numbers.
Lt. Serhiy Skibchyk, press officer of the 65th Brigade, which is fighting in southern Ukraine, said, “The situation is slightly improving compared to the end of 2023, when there was a severe shortage of people.” Small groups of conscripts are now trickling into his unit every week, he noted, “But our needs still exceed the number of people we’re getting.”
Troop shortages have been one of Ukraine’s biggest problems on the battlefield for the past year. Russian forces have managed to break through weakened Ukrainian lines by overwhelming them with waves of ground assaults. And the Ukrainian Army has not had enough soldiers to mount large-scale counterattacks.
Gen. Yurii Sodol, a former commander of the Ukrainian forces, told Parliament in April that in certain sections of the front, Russians outnumbered Ukrainians by more than seven to one.
Ukraine has struggled to recruit or draft more soldiers because of what critics say is a system mired in Soviet-style bureaucracy and corruption. Most Ukrainians also see basic training for conscripts as inadequate, a recent survey showed, leading some to avoid the draft, worried that they would not be prepared for combat.
To address the issue, the Ukrainian Parliament passed a law in April requiring all men under 60 to register at draft offices or online, with the goal of streamlining the mobilization process. The Defense Ministry said this month that 4.7 million had obliged.
The law offers a mix of financial incentives for those taking up arms and penalties on those trying to evade service, such as suspending the driver’s licenses of those who fail to register.
Yehor Chernev, deputy chairman of the parliamentary defense and intelligence committee, said in a text message that “the situation with mobilization has improved significantly,” although he declined to give any precise figures.
In addition to the conscripts, Ukraine has released some 3,800 prisoners to serve in exchange for the possibility of parole at the end of their fighting duties, according to Denys Maliuska, the justice minister.
A medic fighting near the eastern Ukrainian town of Toretsk, one of the hottest points on the front line, said that her brigade had received 2,000 conscripts and prisoners in the past two months. The medic spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid giving information to Russian forces.
Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based military analyst who recently returned from a field study in Ukraine, said that large numbers of conscripts would arrive on the battlefield in the coming weeks. Before that happens, he said he expected Russian forces to “make another big push” and try to break through Ukrainian lines.
“They have a vested interest in trying to make as many gains as they can right now,” Mr. Gady said.
Mobilizing soldiers is just one part of a larger equation for Ukraine. Ensuring that troops are properly trained and supplied with enough weapons and ammunition is equally important, soldiers and experts said.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine acknowledged this month that there were not enough facilities to train conscripts, and he complained that more than a dozen brigades were underequipped because of delays in deliveries of Western weapons.
Mr. Voytenkov, the press officer for the 33rd, said his brigade gave one week of additional training to conscripts to show them the weapons and armored vehicles that they would be using. After just the basic training, he said, “they are not ready to fight, honestly.”
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