PARIS — The Paris Olympic Games were supposed to be a crowning, triumphant moment for French President Emmanuel Macron, a celebration of France’s grandeur that kicks off with an opening ceremony so audacious that nothing like it has been seen since the days of Louis XV.
But even if the parade on the Seine River and the rest of the Games go off without a hitch, Macron won’t be getting a coronation.
Right now, he’s just hoping for a respite from domestic politics.
“We need a break, we need time to calm down, to stop the multiple and various political attacks,” said a Macron ally, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly.
Macron’s political fortunes have, arguably, never looked bleaker. The French president surprised his own camp when he called for a snap election after being brutally defeated by the far right, which campaigned on an anti-Macron platform, in June’s European election. In its wake, the French president’s coalition suffered a second thrashing during the parliamentary election and lost dozens of seats. Tensions have been at fever pitch in recent weeks, with no single party or coalition able to command a majority in parliament and form a government.
This week, the French president called for “a political truce,” a break from the political turmoil he himself unleashed.
With all eyes on Paris, Macron will be able to briefly put his domestic woes aside as he plays host to the world’s glitterati, including singer Céline Dion, rap artist Snoop Dogg and billionaire Tesla boss Elon Musk. The opening ceremony on Friday is expected to a be an artistic and logistical tour de force with a floating parade on the Seine and spectators on the river banks.
But Macron will face the world in an unusual position, with no prime minister by his side and a country led by a caretaker government that knows its days are numbered.
Still, the Olympics could work in his favor, Ipsos pollster Mathieu Gallard said. “All the attention of the media and the French will be on the games,” he said.
The Olympics and the summer holidays that follow them — by tradition a lengthy break in France — could provide Macron with a “de facto break,” Gallard explained.
That pause could prove politically expedient.
“The truth is that when we let things simmer down, we win,” said Macron’s ally, pointing to the centrist’s recent surprise victory to keep key positions in the National Assembly.
Olympic boon for Macron?
Macron has always been keen to harness the power of sports, often styling himself as France’s head coach, giving pep talks to football players and celebrating with les Bleus. He’s been photographed sweaty and boxing, likes to play football for charity and ostentatiously cultivates relations with Kylian Mbappé, the national team’s star player.
It doesn’t always work out. Mbappé left Paris Saint-Germain for Real Madrid this summer despite Macron’s repeated personal overtures. At other times, it has produced some seriously cringeworthy moments. In 2022, the French president descended on the pitch in Qatar to console players after their World Cup final defeat to Argentina in a move that annoyed fans.
Ahead of the Paris Games, Macron called on his fellow countrymen to feel proud of being French despite the strained political situation.
“We are going to welcome the world, it’s an immense pride. France is a welcoming [nation], it’s an audacious France, it’s a France that is proud of its history,” he said during an interview on French television. He even offered the Olympic Games, which were organized by politicians from different parties, as “a metaphor” for how politics should work.
But according to pollster Bruno Jeanbart, it’s unlikely Macron will benefit from any Olympic boon, similar to what happened when France won the football World Cup in 1998 under former President Jacques Chirac.
“Chirac got a boost because the [left-wing] opposition was running the country, he could benefit from the feel-good factor as head of state,” Jeanbart said, referring to a period when the president and prime minister hailed from different parties, as looks set to happen again.
“But it’s different this time, politics is not in the same place, we don’t even have a government,” he added.
Rubik’s Cube politics
Pessimism runs high within Macron’s Renaissance party, and several insiders are saying the prospect of reaching an agreement in parliament to form a government seems distant.
“We need a break … but that won’t change anything. Nobody wants to give Macron a victory,” said former Renaissance lawmaker Christophe Weissberg.
Some of Macron’s supporters, however, hope that with time, a path may be found to build a coalition willing to work with the president.
But Gallard, the Ipsos pollster, said he was skeptical the Olympic truce could lead to any breakthrough in French politics, as no coalition is emerging that could command a majority in parliament.
Weissberg said: “When the Olympics end, we will once again have the left calling for the president to accept their candidate for prime minister and a paralyzed parliament, unless Macron manages to negotiate a coalition.”
This week, the pan-left alliance, the New Popular Front, which won the most seats in this summer’s parliamentary election, finally agreed to put forward Lucie Castets, a little-known Parisian civil servant, as their candidate for prime minister after weeks of bickering.
Macron, who has the constitutional power to appoint the next head of government, categorically refused the proposal. He brushed aside any chance that Castets would become prime minister before the Olympics conclude during his television interview this week, which took place shortly after her selection was made public.
Macron argued that the left did not have a sufficient majority in parliament to govern France, implement reforms and pass a budget.
The French president instead has called for France to learn parliamentary politics and the art of negotiation that is practiced in other European countries, but his inability to take a step back is stifling progress, said Weissberg.
“The president must show that he doesn’t have a solution. He isn’t capable of showing that the ball isn’t in his court. It’s only by showing that he has lost, that he will win,” he said.
Fears are running high among centrists that letting the left form a government would give too much influence to Macron’s arch-enemy, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of the left-wing France Unbowed party.
It would also mean handing power to a political group that has vowed to torpedo one of Macron’s hardest-earned domestic achievements, pension reform, and put in place other expensive policies that would increase France’s already worryingly high level of debt and set up a showdown with Brussels over spending rules.
“France Unbowed has several decrees ready to blow everything up, within 24 hours. They are very well organized,” said the same Macron ally quoted above.
But refusing point blank to give the left a shot at governing France could undermine Macron’s long-term efforts to build a wide coalition from the left to the conservatives.
“It’s going to be very difficult, the [moderate left] will dig their heels in. Some Socialists would work with us but they are prisoners of their [pan-left] political agreement,” Weissberg, the former Renaissance MP, said.
“Everybody is going to dig their heels in, building any sort of coalition will be difficult,” he said.
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