Vice President Kamala Harris is likely to take the lead in polls, but only temporarily, a Trump campaign pollster has said.
In a memo circulated to reporters by former President Donald Trump‘s campaign, pollster Tony Fabrizio warned campaign staff to beware what he branded the “Harris honeymoon,” in which Harris would take a lead in the polls.
“The honeymoon will be a manifestation of the wall-to-wall coverage Harris receives from the MSM,” he wrote, adding that the coverage would be “largely positive” and would “energize Democrats,” giving Harris a polling edge ahead of the Democratic National Convention on August 19.
Harris is the favorite to become the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden endorsed her as his replacement on Sunday, shortly after announcing the end of his reelection campaign amid concerns over his age and health.
Since then, polls have shown Harris with a marginal lead over Trump. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted on Monday and Tuesday showed Harris with a 2-point lead over Trump, with 44 percent of those polled supporting her in a head-to-head contest with the Republican, while 42 percent backed the former president. The poll had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
When voters in the survey were shown a hypothetical ballot that included independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Harris led Trump 42 percent to 38 percent, an advantage outside the margin of error.
In his memo, Fabrizio downplayed polling that might show an increase in Harris’ support.
“The Democrats and the MSM will try and tout these polls as proof that the race has changed,” he said. “But the fundamentals of the race stay the same.” Polls had for months showed Trump leading Biden in several key battleground states.
He said a “bump” for Harris in the polls is likely to occur, with the lead lasting for “a while.” However, he added that the bump would be temporary and would disappear after the “race settles back down.”
“Before long, Harris’ ‘honeymoon’ will end and voters will refocus on her role as Biden’s partner and co-pilot,” Fabrizio wrote.
He continued: “The Democrats deposing one Nominee for another does NOT change voters discontent over the economy, inflation, crime, the open border, housing costs not to mention concern over two foreign wars.”
In the memo, Fabrizio also said Trump had seen a bump in the polls following the Republican National Convention last week and the assassination attempt against him the week before.
“Due to the events of the past two weeks including our highly successful Convention, President Trump has seen a bump in his numbers in a number of recent public polls,” he wrote.
Candidates often expect a bump after formally accepting their party’s nomination at stage-managed, televised conventions, though that has not been the case for Trump.
A poll conducted by Morning Consult after Biden ended his reelection campaign showed Trump had a 2-point lead over Harris, with 47 percent supporting the former president compared to 45 percent backing Harris.
The poll also showed that Trump’s margin over the Democrats had decreased. The former president was now only 2 points ahead of Harris, after a previous survey by the same pollsters put Trump four points ahead of Biden—46 percent to the president’s 42 percent.
Morning Consult polled a representative sample of 4,001 registered voters, with an unweighted margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
In other polls, Trump has a clearer lead. A poll conducted by Mainstreet USA Polling between July 19 and 21 showed Trump with a 5-point lead over Harris in a head-to-head matchup, with 49 percent of respondents supporting Trump and 44 percent supporting the vice president.
When other candidates were included, Trump increased his lead over Harris, with 45 percent supporting the former president and 39 percent supporting Harris.
The poll surveyed 780 registered voters, who were 18 years of age or older and living in the U.S. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
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