Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, called officials together this week to hammer out ideas to pull the country’s economy out of its doldrums. But if the official summary of the meeting is a guide, Mr. Xi believes he already has many of the answers.
His message to the 363 other officials who gathered in Beijing seemed to be: stick with his state-led, tech-focused strategy, only do it better. That is, make it cleaner, more fair and keep a careful eye on national security.
Some critics fault Mr. Xi’s heavy-handed ways for China’s economic stumbles, but the official summary of the four-day meeting, known as the Third Plenum of the Central Committee, focused on the hazards of a turbulent world, and the opportunities of innovation.
China faces “a new wave of technological revolution and industrial transformation,” said the summary, released by official media on Thursday.
Investors in China, dispirited by the country’s economic troubles, have been waiting for promising signals, but the post-meeting statement gave only a broad description of any plans, clad in Communist Party slogans.
More specific proposals may be made public only days later, if past sessions are a guide. Here’s how to read the official communiqué and what to look for as more details emerge.
Economic security: ‘High-quality development and a high level of security’
At the Third Plenum in 2013, Mr. Xi promised to give market competition a bigger role in parts of the economy. He also promised a new commission to strengthen national security, which in China focuses on defending Communist Party rule.
But in the years since, China’s expanding national security apparatus has often called the shots, policing more areas of life and, critics say, impeding innovators and foreign investors.
The meeting hinted that China’s leaders want to strike a more nuanced balance between security and growth. The summary said China must “achieve healthy interaction between high-quality development and a high level of security.”
Elsewhere, the document indicated that the party’s controls on public opinion will remain tight. A few words also hinted that Mr. Xi’s ambitions for a bigger international voice were undimmed.
China must, the statement said, “guide global governance, and actively shape a benign external environment.”
Business conditions: ‘Actively expand domestic demand’
Nearly three years of stringent “Covid zero” restrictions, Mr. Xi’s regulatory crackdowns on tech giants and a sweeping series of tax audits have created broad apprehension across China’s private sector. Cautious consumer spending has deterred businesses from expanding when they cannot be sure of finding customers.
But in the end, the Chinese leadership made no mention of the private sector at all. Officials said they would “better maintain market order” as well as establish a “high-level socialist market economy.” The statement also called for steps to “actively expand domestic demand and develop new quality productivity in keeping with local conditions.”
In other words, markets have a place in China, as long as they serve the party’s grander goals.
Fiscal policy: ‘Improve the macro-control system’
One of the Chinese government’s biggest challenges is shrinking revenue. The official communiqué offered few clues on how this would be addressed.
Local and provincial governments provide almost all of the country’s pensions, health care and schooling. Many of them are deep in debt and now find their revenues falling fast.
Third Plenums in 2003 and 2013 suggested that China introduce a broad-based property tax, which would give local governments a more sustainable flow of revenue. Except for a couple of small experiments, this was never done.
The communiqué noted that “it is necessary to improve the macro-control system, coordinate the reform of key areas such as finance and taxation.”
Social policy: ‘Two-way flow of urban and rural factors’
Nearly 300 million Chinese work or live in a different city from their legal residency, often migrating from inland villages for jobs in coastal factories. Their children seldom qualify to attend public schools in the towns where they work, so they must leave them with relatives in their hometowns — China’s millions of “left behind” children.
Allowing families to live together where they want could reinvigorate the birthrate and stimulate demand for new apartments in big cities.
Big cities have been wary of providing benefits for many migrants. The statement called for a “two-way flow of urban and rural factors,” as well as “narrowing the gap” between urban and rural areas and “deepening reform of the land system.” But that sounds like less than the sweeping end to barriers that some economists urge.
The mystery of ‘Comrade Qin’
The fate of China’s former foreign minister, Qin Gang, has for a year been a mystery. Mr. Qin, who rose rapidly as an enforcer of Mr. Xi’s wishes, disappeared abruptly last year. He was replaced as foreign minister, but the party has been silent about what misdeeds or mishaps may have caused his downfall.
The Central Committee accepted Mr. Qin’s resignation and removed him from the committee. Yet the summary also referred to him as “Comrade,” suggesting that, at least so far, he has not been totally ostracized. The mystery continues.
The post China’s Leaders Offer High Hopes, but Few Details for Road to Recovery appeared first on New York Times.
