This week’s Republican convention in Milwaukee has brought the prospect of former President Donald J. Trump’s return to the White House into focus, and leaders in Israel, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, the principal U.S. allies in the Middle East, are calculating what it could mean for their domestic and regional agendas.
There are perceived advantages for all the leaders, many of whom had warm relations with Mr. Trump. Central to those calculations is how a Trump presidency could impact Washington’s approach to the war in Gaza, which has already upended Israeli politics and rattled Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel angered Mr. Trump by congratulating Mr. Biden after the presidential election in 2020 — a move that Mr. Trump considered disloyal and strained their relationship for years. But the pair had a strong tie during the first Trump presidency and Mr. Trump’s return is expected to benefit Mr. Netanyahu’s right-wing government, particularly if the war in Gaza extends into next year.
Mr. Trump has said that Israel should “do what you have to do” in Gaza and denounced pro-Palestinian protesters on U.S. campuses. He has criticized the Israeli government for posting videos of the destruction they have caused, but only because such videos harm Israel’s image. In addition, Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio, Mr. Trump’s running mate, is strongly pro-Israel.
Mr. Trump is also more closely aligned with Mr. Netanyahu on Iran. He ended an Obama-era agreement that aimed to restrict Iran’s nuclear program, pleasing Mr. Netanyahu, and he backed landmark deals that forged diplomatic ties between Israel and three Arab states. If he wins the presidency, he is also expected to push ahead with Mr. Biden’s efforts to forge a similar arrangement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
States in the Arabian Peninsula, a region rich in fossil fuels, also have reasons to welcome a second Trump term. Two weeks ago, the Trump Organization signed a deal with a real estate company in Saudi Arabia to build a residential high-rise tower there, extending the family’s close ties with the kingdom.
Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund is the primary investor in the investment firm that Jared Kushner, Mr. Trump’s son-in-law, set up after he left his post as a White House adviser to Mr. Trump. And another major source of new revenue for the Trump family has been LIV Golf, a professional league backed by the sovereign fund.
During his presidency, Mr. Trump had warm relations with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, defending him after the 2018 murder and dismemberment of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents in Istanbul. Mr. Trump’s first foreign visit as leader was to the Saudi capital, Riyadh.
But as president, Mr. Trump was also unpredictable, Gulf officials say in private, and they often lament that he did not respond more strongly to an Iran-backed attack on Saudi oil fields in 2019. Recently, as Saudi Arabia has gradually won over members of President Biden’s administration, the kingdom’s officials have emphasized their ability to work with both parties.
Egypt also enjoyed warm relations with Mr. Trump, though some senior Egyptian officials took a dim view of what they saw as anti-Muslim bias among Mr. Trump’s advisers. The president himself once reportedly called the Egyptian president, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, “my favorite dictator.”
Mr. Trump’s administration rarely criticized Mr. el-Sisi, who has cracked down on political opponents, and Mr. el-Sisi’s government has received at least $1 billion in annual aid from the United States since becoming the first Arab country to make peace with Israel in 1979.
When President Biden took office after a campaign in which he promised “no more blank checks” for Mr. el-Sisi, Cairo at first appeared to be in for a rude awakening. The new administration threatened to withhold more aid over Egypt’s human rights abuses and denied it the high-level official visits and presidential handshakes Mr. el-Sisi craved.
But Egypt’s role as a mediator in the May 2021 war between Israel and Hamas, as well as in conflicts in neighboring Sudan and Libya, reinforced its image as a pillar of regional stability and ties with the Biden administration warmed.
For Egypt, the shift back to the status quo reinforced a basic principle: U.S. presidents come and go but the United States needs Egypt. Analysts said Egyptian leaders were confident that the country would continue to be a regional partner, especially given its role as a key mediator in the war in Gaza and as a player in any postwar scenario.
Indeed, if Mr. Trump’s tone toward Mr. el-Sisi remains as friendly as it was in his first term, it could ease any remaining pressure on Egypt to reform, analysts say.
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