Ursula von der Leyen won only half the battle when as president of the European Commission in June.
Now, she still needs to win over a majority of the European Parliament’s 720 lawmakers on Thursday.
She is pitching herself as an experienced leader and could benefit from a desire in the for a steady hand at a time when and ‘s possible return to the White House in could shake up global relations.
Von der Leyen’s conservative political grouping, the European People’s Party (EPP), has 188 seats, the Socialists and Liberals have 155, and the liberal Renew group has 75. This is far more than the 361 voted needed to get a second five-year term.
On paper, it would seem that she could gather the required numbers from within the coalition.
“I am not a mathematician, but I think, with the three center forces that are supporting Ursula von der Leyen and that form part of a package deal, we have the numbers,” EPP spokesperson Pedro Lopez said last week.
Neither the politicians nor the experts DW spoke with believe that it will be as easy as Lopez implied. There’s no guarantee everyone in the coalition will vote for von der Leyen.
“It’s going to be tight,” said Julien Hoez, a Brussels-based EU expert.
Votes cast in secret ballot
Since the vote is secret, it is important for von der Leyen to talk personally with parliamentarians, who can vote based on their constituents’ interests without fear of repercussions if they stray from the party line.
While members of the European Parliament (MEPs) cannot be forced to vote for a candidate through a party whip, governments and leaders still try to influence the outcome.
Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris, for instance, has called on Irish MEPs to back von der Leyen in the interest of getting a key European Commission post for Ireland. The 27-member Commission has a commissioner from each member state, and some positions are more influential than others.
“I’ve no doubt that President von der Leyen will want to talk to MEPs. That would be an appropriate thing to do, and, certainly, I’ll be engaging with Irish MEPs on the basis that we have now put forward Michael McGrath to be our commissioner,” Harris said, according to Irish public broadcaster RTE.
Should von der Leyen fail to secure 361 votes, the EU could plunge into a crisis at a time when anxieties are high and alternative candidates with sufficient blocwide backing seem nonexistent.
Will von der Leyen shift to the right?
Von der Leyen barely scraped through with the same coalition in 2019 when she was elected with a tiny margin of nine votes.
This time around, several politicians within the multiparty coalition have already said they would not vote for her. Others have warned she must steer clear of cooperating with the far-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group — the third largest in the .
The Socialists and Liberals are watching von der Leyen closely following an overture to Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni, who heads the ECR.
Ahead of the last month, von der Leyen opened the door to an alliance with Meloni. The move irked her major allies, who threatened to withdraw their support if she leaned further to the right.
After the election, the EPP indicated that there would not be a formal deal with Meloni, but there is a chance von der Leyen will offer Italy concessions on immigration policy in her speech on Thursday. The wording of any such promise, and for that matter on the ongoing Gaza conflict, will be monitored by Socialists, Liberals and Greens.
Greens to the rescue?
The Greens lost 18 seats in June’s European election, but even with a lowered tally of 53 seats, they believe they are . The group could provide the votes von der Leyen needs without her having to make a deal with Meloni and keep the balance between the center-right and center-left and progressive forces intact.
DW has learned that von der Leyen has assured Green party members she is determined to chase the target of net-zero emissions by 2050 set out in the , but added that the plan may need adjusting.
Von der Leyen will have to walk a tightrope on how she intends to resolve a dispute over the use of combustion engines after 2035. While the EPP, which mainly comprises Germany’s Christian Democrats, wants to reverse the ban, the Socialists and Greens want it preserved.
But absent a last-minute surprise, the Greens are likely to vote for her and, as a bloc, push her across the finishing line. Experts said the Greens have become more amenable after electoral losses and seek little more than a broad assurance on the continuation of the Green Deal.
“If there is a red line, then it is keeping the far right out,” said a Green politician who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
Von der Leyen will have to balance different interests to be reelected. One EU politician told DW that von der Leyan can’t win allies if she only aims to serve the interests of her own grouping.
Edited by: Sean M. Sinico
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