New research claims the shaking from a magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the south San Andreas fault posits that Los Angeles may see 50% less ground motion than previously predicted.
While “This is only one scenario,” said study co-author Te-Yang Yeh, a postdoctoral researcher at San Diego State University, it is a rare outlook that movies and TV have always painted as a major disaster.
The study has not yet undergone peer review, but appears on the preprint site ESS Open Archive. It updates computer modeling first conducted during the 2008 Great Southern California ShakeOut, a project quantifying the consequences of a magnitude 7.8 quake on the southern San Andreas fault, which runs 30 miles (50 kilometers) east of downtown LA.
The Statewide California Earthquake Center predicts a worst-case earthquake is expected to cause 1,800 deaths, 50,000 injuries, and $200 billion in damage.
The quake simulations used in the ShakeOut project were not as detailed as today’s technology allows, Yeh told Live Science.
Their results showed a better outlook for LA. “The ground motions are still profound,” Yeh said. “But it’s not as horrifying as what was previously predicted.”
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