President Joe Biden‘s chances of losing to former President Donald Trump in this year’s presidential election have declined only slightly in recent weeks despite concerns about the president’s fitness, according to recent polls.
Biden has been under mounting pressure following a lethargic and at times confusing performance in his June 27 debate with Trump, prompting at least 18 sitting Democratic lawmakers to call on him to step down and make way for a different nominee.
While many polls have shown that Biden has suffered a loss of support since the debate, the race remains essentially deadlocked, as Trump’s lead over the president is still well within the margin of error in most polls that show Biden trailing.
An average of recent polls from polling website FiveThirtyEight shows that Trump has a 2.1 percent lead over Biden nationally, up from a 0.2 percent lead on the day of the debate.
New national polls released this week by YouGov/The Economist and Ipsos/Washington Post/ABC News show Trump with a 3-point lead and the race even, respectively.
Election simulations from FiveThirtyEight, which use polling data and other factors, also suggest a razor-thin margin of victory for the winner in November. As of Thursday night, Trump won in 51 out of 100 simulations, while Biden won in 49.
Before the debate, each candidate won 50 out of 100 simulations, indicating that Trump has received only a minuscule boost to his chances of winning despite the post-debate focus on Biden’s fitness.
Newsweek reached out for comment to the Trump and Biden campaigns via email on Thursday night.
In most critical battleground states, the polling picture has also shifted in Trump’s favor only modestly since the debate.
In Wisconsin, Trump leads by 1.4 percent in the FiveThirtyEight average, with Biden having had a 0.2 percent lead over Trump on June 27.
However, Biden had a 3 percent lead over Trump in Wisconsin in the most recent poll, from Morning Consult/Bloomberg, with Trump having been ahead in polls conducted in the immediate aftermath of the debate.
Trump has received a bigger boost in Pennsylvania, where the FiveThirtyEight average shows his lead jumping from 0.8 percent on the day of the debate to 3.3 percent on Thursday.
In Michigan, the former president was leading Biden by an average of 0.5 percent on Thursday, a tiny increase from his 0.3 percent lead on June 27.
Trump’s average lead of 5.2 percent in Georgia was down slightly from a 5.3 percent lead on June 27. Leads in Nevada and Arizona increased from 2.7 percent to 4.8 percent and from 3.8 percent to 4.4 percent, respectively.
While Biden appears to still be within striking distance in most major polls less than four months before Election Day, it is unclear how much lasting damage has been done to his campaign by the debate fallout and calls for him to step down.
The New York Times reported on Thursday that the Biden campaign was conducting internal polling of a potential matchup between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, who is perhaps the president’s most likely replacement should he step down.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
The post Joe Biden’s Chances of Losing to Donald Trump, According to Polls appeared first on Newsweek.
