The Biden campaign is opening more field offices. Gov. Gavin Newsom has paid a visit, all the way from California, to proclaim the president’s fitness for a second term. And a recent poll has shown President Biden losing support.
New Hampshire’s famously independent-minded voters have reliably favored Democrats in presidential races for two decades.
But after Mr. Biden’s recent dismal debate performance, one poll of registered voters in the state found that former President Donald J. Trump had a slight lead. And the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election forecaster, changed its outlook this week for the presidential race in the state from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat.”
Those indicators, along with Mr. Newsom’s sudden appearance at highway rest stop near Manchester, raise a question that is infrequently asked in the state: Could New Hampshire, with its four electoral votes, be in play for Republicans?
In interviews this week, most voters said that they had already made up their minds — and that the debate, held last month in Atlanta, had not done much to sway them. For many Biden supporters, the prospect of another Trump presidency is enough to drive them to the polls.
Carol Knight, 86, from Nashua, an old mill city of 90,000, described herself as a loyal Biden supporter who would never budge because “democracy is at stake.”
But among voters inclined to waver, Mr. Biden’s vulnerability was apparent. His margin for error with some voters appears to be slim; one more alarming misstep could drive them away.
Karen Crowley, 64, of Concord, the state capital, is an undecided independent who voted for Mr. Biden in 2020, and is now wrestling with what feels like an impossible choice.
“I want someone who’s going to make sure the country stays a democracy,” she said. “I don’t want Trump in office, but I don’t necessarily think Biden can do the job.”
Ms. Crowley, a retired nurse, said she needs to see Mr. Biden make a more forceful case for what he’s done and plans to do, proving that he is still up to the task.
In the meantime, her dilemma feels overwhelming. “It’s huge,” she said.
Independent voters, like Ms. Crowley, make up 37 percent of registered voters in New Hampshire, outnumbering both Democrats and Republicans.
Some of these voters lean toward one party or the other. But those who are truly independent — regularly switching sides to vote for candidates from both parties — could be in flux, said Dante Scala, a political scientist at the University of New Hampshire. They tend to be less politically engaged, he said, and vote less frequently.
Mr. Biden’s debate showing, Mr. Scala said, could be enough for them to dismiss him four years after he convincingly beat Mr. Trump in New Hampshire, 53 percent to 45 percent.
In interviews, independent voters expressed anger and deep frustration with the caliber of both Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden. Some, like Jo-Ellen Wagner, an independent who said she is over 55, said they are considering not voting, given the “terrible choices.”
Mr. Biden could also lose support from the state’s moderate Republicans, many of whom supported Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor, in the Republican primary.
“Biden has now given those potential defectors a rationalization,” Mr. Scala said. “Would some of those people leave their vote for president blank?”
A close race was always in the cards, said Karen Hicks, a veteran campaign strategist for Democrats in New Hampshire. She predicted that the angst would settle down and that voters who cannot stomach Trump would resolve to do what they had to do.
“These are cranky Yankees, and there will be grousing, but I have faith in voters here,” she said. “Some people may fall off the edges, but there will be a robust effort to get people to focus on the stakes here.”
It is still unknown whether Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is running as an independent, will appear on the ballot in New Hampshire. Mr. Kennedy’s campaign has said that he has the necessary voter signatures, which must be submitted by early August.
Some voters said they are contemplating a third-party option.
“81 and 78? Come on — that’s all we got?” said Mike Ste-Marie, 46, a contractor from Manchester, referring to the ages of Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump. He called them “two clowns” and said that out of frustration he would either write in his own name for president or back a third-party candidate.
There is also heightened concern that Mr. Biden’s waning support could affect down-ballot races, particularly in the narrowly divided State Legislature.
In the open governor’s race, Kelly Ayotte, a Republican former U.S. senator, enjoys robust name recognition. But the Democratic candidates competing in the Sept. 10 primary — Joyce Craig, Cinde Warmington and Jon Kiper — are less well known, and the winner will have just a few weeks to build momentum for the general election.
Ellis Robinson, chair of the Sullivan County Democrats, near the Vermont border, said she was heartened to see 50 people turn out recently to meet local candidates.
The county’s delegation to the State House comprises six Democrats and seven Republicans, she said, making every race important.
“Our biggest goal is to help people realize that it’s not just about the presidency,” Ms. Robinson said. “The further down the ballot you go, the closer to home you get, and that really matters.”
The recent poll of 1,700 voters in the state, by the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at St. Anselm College, showed significant distaste for both major-party presidential candidates.
But the poll also showed the collapse of a 10-point lead that Mr. Biden enjoyed in December. This time, 44 percent of respondents said that they would vote for Mr. Trump, and 42 percent pledged support for Mr. Biden. The poll had a 2.3 percent margin of error.
The poll’s good news for Mr. Biden was backhanded: He leads among voters who dislike both candidates.
Marie Mulroy, 77, is a retired public health worker from Manchester and a highly engaged independent voter. She said she would vote for Mr. Biden to stop Mr. Trump — though she fears that effort, at this point, is futile.
“All I wanted from the debate was to want to vote for Biden, and to not feel like I had to vote for him,” she said, “and now I’m angry that I have to vote for him.”
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