Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at France’s future parliamentary makeup, an impeachment petition in South Korea, and alleged Israeli torture of Palestinian prisoners.
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Macron’s ‘Icarus’ Moment
France’s far-right National Rally (RN) party and its allies won 33 percent of the vote on Sunday in the first round of snap parliamentary elections. This puts the group on track to form France’s first far-right elected government since World War II. The second (and final) round of elections will be held next Sunday.
The left-wing New Popular Front secured 28 percent of the vote, and French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Together coalition won just 21 percent. Some experts have compared Macron’s gamble to secure power as an “Icarus” moment, or even akin to then-French Emperor Napoleon Bonaparte’s failed campaign to invade Russia in 1812.
“Macron’s move to call new elections was a miscalculation and has now probably contributed to strengthening the far right,” German Green party co-chair Ricarda Lang told Politico. The RN is on track to finish the second round just shy of establishing a majority in parliament. Macron has said he will not resign from power until his term expires in 2027, but an RN win could significantly hamper the French president’s legislative abilities.
The National Rally hopes to replace Macron’s pro-Europe, pro-business agenda with its populist, anti-immigration platform. Formed out of a fringe movement whose leader once called the Nazi gas chambers a “detail” in history, the RN is now run by far-right figure Marine Le Pen and 28-year-old leader Jordan Bardella, who is running for the prime minister’s office. The RN seeks friendlier ties with Russia, stricter migration policies, and rolled back pension reforms.
French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal accused nearly one-fifth of the RN’s parliamentary candidates last Thursday of having made “racist, antisemitic, and homophobic remarks” in the past. And New Popular Front leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon said on Sunday that the alliance would withdraw all of its candidates who came third in the first round of elections to help unify around Macron’s ruling coalition. “Our guideline is simple and clear: not a single more vote for the National Rally,” Mélenchon said.
International leaders also appear worried about the RN’s success. “This is all really starting to smell of great danger,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said. But some far-right European governments have celebrated the move, with Balazs Orban, the Hungarian prime minister’s political director, warning that “change is coming.”
Right-wing parties made major gains in the European Parliament elections held last month. On Sunday, Austria’s Freedom Party, the Czech Republic’s ANO, and Hungary’s Fidesz announced their plans to establish the so-called Patriots for Europe faction. Lawmakers from at least four other EU member states must join the far-right group by Thursday for it to become an official coalition. “We think this is the day when European policy begins to change,” Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on Sunday, one day before he began his six-month rotation as president of the European Union’s Council of Ministers.
Patriots for Europe has pledged to end EU support for Ukraine and begin peace talks with Russia. Austria’s Freedom Party, the organizing force behind the alliance, is expected to win the Austrian national election in September after doubling its number of EU parliamentary seats last month.
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The World This Week
Tuesday, July 2: Tusk hosts German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Warsaw, Poland.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with Haitian Prime Minister Garry Conille and Foreign Minister Dominique Dupuy in Washington.
Wednesday, July 3: Kazakhstan hosts a two-day summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
The Parliamentary Assembly of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe concludes its five-day meeting.
Thursday, July 4: Chinese President Xi Jinping travels to Tajikistan for a three-day visit.
The United Kingdom holds snap general elections.
Friday, July 5: Iran holds its presidential election runoff.
Sunday, July 7: France holds the second round of its snap parliamentary elections.
Paraguay hosts a foreign ministers’ meeting with Mercosur members.
Monday, July 8: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to travel to Russia for a two-day visit.
What We’re Following
Low approval ratings. Public discontent for South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol reached a fever pitch late Sunday, when an online petition calling for his removal experienced delays and disruptions due to too many people trying to sign it. Already, more than 811,000 people have signed the document, which accuses Yoon of corruption, escalating tensions with North Korea, and threatening public health by allowing Japan to dump treated radioactive water from the destroyed Fukushima nuclear power plant into the ocean.
By law, all petitions with more than 50,000 signatures must be assigned to a parliamentary committee for discussion. A two-thirds majority is then needed to approve impeachment. Two South Korean leaders have been impeached in the country’s history, though the Constitutional Court reinstated one of them.
Palestinian prisoners. On Monday, Israel released 55 Palestinians from Gaza who had been detained by Israeli forces. Among those released was Mohammed Abu Selmia, the director of the enclave’s main hospital, who was freed without charge or trial after being detained since Israel’s raid on Shifa Hospital last November. Abu Selmia was accused of allowing Hamas militants to use Shifa Hospital as a command-and-control center. Hamas and hospital administration continue to deny the allegations.
Upon his release, Abu Selmia claimed that Israeli forces tortured him and other detainees, who included doctors and other medical staff, citing verbal and physical humiliation, beatings, and the withholding of food and water. “When you seek treatment, you are tortured by the nurse and doctor, and this is against international conventions,” Abu Selmia told NBC. The Israeli Prison Service said in a statement that it was unaware of Abu Selmia’s allegations and that “all prisoners are detained according to the law.”
Meanwhile, Israel’s army ordered Palestinians on Monday to evacuate the eastern half of the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis, signaling that Israeli troops may return to the area as Hamas regroups. And at least 20 rockets were reportedly launched from southern Gaza toward Israel on Monday in one of the largest barrages from the region in months. No casualties were reported.
Election in Mauritania. Incumbent Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani won reelection on Saturday with more than 56 percent of the vote—removing the need for a runoff. Anti-slavery activist Biram Dah Abeid (ranked second, with 22 percent support) and Islamist candidate Hamadi Sidi el-Mokhtar (ranked third at 13 percent) refused to accept the results, though, citing alleged vote-rigging. Abeid called the results an “electoral coup.”
Mauritania continues to battle Islamist armed groups, slavery concerns, and threats from its junta-led neighbors. Yet it remains “the sole bastion of relative political stability in the Sahel region,” Samuel Ramani argued in Foreign Policy last September. This status has placed Mauritania at the crosshairs of external power rivalries, particularly between China and NATO.
Odds and Ends
You won’t see it on the red carpet, but North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is making a fashion statement. All North Koreans are now required to wear a lapel pin that features Kim’s image instead of those depicting his late father or grandfather, both of whom once ruled Pyongyang, officials verified on Sunday. This appears to be Kim’s latest quest for devotion after he unveiled his portrait in May at a Workers’ Party-run training school, where it was displayed alongside those of his predecessors for the first time.
The post France’s Far Right Celebrates Major Wins in Snap Parliamentary Elections appeared first on Foreign Policy.
