In Game 4 the Mavericks avoided the sweep, blowing out the Celtics to the tune of a 38-point victory. The biggest difference in the performance from the Mavericks was on the defensive end, managing to contain both Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum.
The Mavericks will need to keep that momentum going if they want to prolong the series, and here’s what we like from a player prop perspective.
Play 1: Luka Doncic over 9.5 First Quarter Points (-115) DraftKings
This was a play that we were on in Game 4 and Luka came through for us, so let’s go right back to the well and back him once again in Game 5. Unfortunately, the books have caught on and are no longer giving us this price at plus money, but it is still worth a hit even at the -115 odds that we’re getting at DraftKings.
Doncic’s point prop for Game 5 is priced at over/under 32.5, and that’s a number he’s gone under in all four games of the series. That said, he’s gone over this first quarter point prop of 9.5 in three of four games, only missing in Game 1. He scored seven, 13, 13 and 13 points in the first quarters of Games 1-4. Doncic has notoriously been a fast starter and tends to get tired as the game goes on, which is why isolating his point prop to the first quarter is the way to go. We also guard ourselves against the possible shenanigans of a blowout like we saw in Game 4.
In terms of the matchup itself, the Celtics defense seems content with letting Doncic beat them off the dribble and off pick-and-rolls, but are making it a point to not let him control the game from a passing perspective. This is why in the four games he has only recorded more than six assists once, with one, 11, six and five assists in the four games of the series. That is a far cry from his regular season average of 9.8 assists per game.
The Celtics drop coverage (which we’ve mentioned at nauseam in this series) is the reason Doncic is able to score so well against this Celtics defense. In the regular season, the Celtics allowed the second-most points per game to pick-and-roll ball handlers, the second-most above-the-break 3-point attempts, and the most pull-up 3-point attempts in the NBA. All three of those are areas in which Doncic excels, which has allowed him to start these games scoring so well in the first quarter.
Play 2: Jaylen Brown over 6.5 First Quarter Points (-106) FanDuel
While our first prop is a play that has cashed a bunch this series, this Jaylen Brown play is the exact opposite, as he has gone under this number in all four games so far this series. It’s interesting what has happened with the odds and line of this prop, as it was priced at over/under 4.5 heading into Game 2, then at 5.5 in Games 3 and 4. Despite the fact that he has yet to score more than four points in a first quarter of this series, the books are pricing this prop at 6.5 tonight.
The books are onto something here, and we are in agreement with them. Taking out these past four games, Brown’s first quarter point prop had been a gold mine in games in which Kristaps Porzingis missed, and it looks like the big man will miss Game 5 after not playing in Games 3 and 4. Brown had scored seven or more points in five of eight playoff games without Porzingis heading into this series, and in two of those three games he went under he was just one bucket away from getting to seven points. Generally, you could rely on Brown to start fast without Porzingis in the lineup.
In the regular season, Brown went over this prop in roughly 60% of the games that Porzingis missed, averaging 8.1 points per game in the first quarter of those 19 games. Brown has also been excellent this entire series, which is why he’s the heavy betting favorite to win Finals MVP at -230 odds.
The Mavericks defense was much better in Game 4, but in Games 1-3 they could not contain Brown on drives. The guess here is that the Mavericks will be unable to repeat that level of defensive intensity, leading to Brown being aggressive in the first quarter. Brown has also played all 12 minutes of the first quarter in the last three games as well, which is another reason to back his first quarter point prop.
Play 3: Derrick White Over 3.5 Made 3-Pointers (+120) FanDuel
For this play we are really just betting on volume for Derrick White, who has been shooting a ton of 3-pointers in these playoffs. Even in a game in which the Celtics were blown out pretty much from the jump in Game 4, White still put up eight 3-point attempts in 30 minutes of playing time. He only made two of those eight attempts, so this is a nice fade of recent results as well.
The two games prior to that he had cashed four 3-pointers, shooting 4-for-10 and 4-for-9 from deep in those two games. So, after cashing it two straight games it only makes sense for him to have a down game, especially in a game that the Celtics never really had a chance. In games 1-3 the Celtics attempted an astonishing 29 catch-and-shoot 3-pointers per game, which would have led the league in the regular season.
The reason they were able to attempt so many 3’s is because the Mavericks were pretty aggressive in sending help to guard Brown and Tatum as they were driving, leaving shooters wide open.
In Game 4, they did a better job guarding on-ball, and due to that the Celtics only attempted 24 catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, which would have been bottom ten in the NBA over the course of the season. They also only made six of those attempts, shooting 25% on those 24 catch-and-shoot 3-pointers. The guess here is that the Mavericks won’t be able to contain the ball as well as they did in Game 4, which should lead to more catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts for guys like Derrick White, who has led the Celtics in catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts in the playoffs.
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