For too long, Ukraine has had to fight the invading Russians with one hand tied behind its back.
While Vladimir Putin’s forces could strike Ukraine from anywhere – and even launch its illegal invasion from the neighbouring country of Belarus, lest we forget – Kyiv was completely restricted from striking targets in Russia with Western weapons, including on the sites where many of the deadliest strikes were launched from.
To use a football analogy as we approach the Euros: it was as if Ukraine was only allowed to have a goalkeeper to repel a full Russian team, which also had substitutes.
At last, however, that is beginning to change. From now, with permissions granted from various Western countries – but most crucially the United States – Ukraine can strike targets far deeper into Russia. Whilst it is still obliged to prioritise the Kharkiv front by the nature of the permissions granted (Washington is still too afraid to give Kyiv carte blanche to fire anywhere), there is evidence that it has freed up the Ukrainian armed forces to use the other weapons it had in reserve to strike elsewhere.
And these weapons are quite deadly. Over the weekend, Ukrainian forces achieved several notable milestones. An example of the Kremlin’s most advanced and costly aircraft, a Su-57 stealth fighter jet, was hit at the Akhtubinsk airfield in southern Russia. One of only six which can fire Russia’s own ‘wonder weapon’ – a hypersonic missile – the strike was a powerful sign of Kyiv’s increasing power.
Around the same time, a Ukrainian fighter jet launched a cross-border attack, targeting and reportedly destroying a “command node” in Belgorod and an ammunition dump. We do not know what weaponry was used, but it must have been highly advanced. Without the ability to command and control their troops, Russia’s beleaguered conscripts will be even more of a rabble than they currently are, and without ammunition they aren’t going anywhere.
Simultaneously, advanced Ukrainian drones executed a significant assault on Russian naval vessels docked at the port of Taganrog. This drone attack was also unprecedented, as it represented the first successful strike by Kyiv’s drones on a Russian target in the Sea of Azov since the beginning of the invasion. Throughout the conflict Kyiv has proven itself highly adept at drone warfare. It saved them in 2022. Now, with all their subsequent innovations, it is turning the tide in 2024.
If Russia cannot protect its most valuable military assets, it suggests it is now running out of air defence capability, and their situation will only get worse.
For too long Kyiv was fighting an uneven battle, putting it in the impossible position of seeing Russia massing troops across its own border, unable to hit them. Now that has changed, I think the Kharkiv front will begin to turn back in Kyiv’s favour. Russia cannot sustain the industrial level of casualties it is currently facing – over 500,000 so far. I don’t care how good Russia’s industrial complex is. In the modern era that figure is simply not sustainable.
A narrative has unfairly formed that the tide was all with Russia recently, Ukraine hamstrung by Western leaders fearful of Putin’s nuclear weapons. But as Francis Dearnley wrote in the Telegraph yesterday, it perhaps time we question that narrative. Ukraine has successfully defended itself against huge attacks, and now can go on the offensive and make the most of its fighting spirit and western military hardware, unconstrained by ridiculous western enforced military constraints.
The Kremlin has removed all the experienced military commanders, and a few weeks ago there were rumours that Putin was looking for a ceasefire. This war has not escalated despite numerous red lines being crossed, as the Russian propaganda would have everyone believe in order to frighten them.
Ukraine has already gained freedom of manoeuvre in the Black Sea by destroying the Russian fleet, and it appears the Ukrainian airforce is gaining parity in the air, which could turn to air superiority even before the Western F16s arrive. Many experts predict, myself included, that a small breakthrough could lead to the collapse of the Russian forces, especially on the Crimea front. If Putin loses Crimea he loses the war.
Those vying to lead this country on 5 July must understand that the reason this war started is that we, and other NATO countries took our eyes off the Russian threat and reduced our militaries to such an extent that they were no longer a conventional deterrence. Thank heavens we have Trident (for now). This is not over yet, but we are deep in the second half, and Ukraine has just scored a vital goal to edge them ahead.
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