PARIS — As world leaders gather on the beaches of Normandy on Thursday to mark the Allies’ final drive to defeat totalitarianism in World War II, war is once again raging on European soil.
Indeed, given the number of current geopolitical threats to the post-war global order, the mood in Normandy is unlikely to be buoyant.
The war’s last surviving veterans will honor the thousands of young men who died during the June 6, 1944 Normandy invasion. But 80 years on, the peace they afforded to Europe has been shattered, with Ukraine’s dogged fight against invading Russian troops offering a disheartening parallel to WWII.
In celebrating the D-Day landings Western leaders will showcase a united front, laying wreaths at the graves of the fallen while promising unfaltering support for Kyiv. But the mood on Ukraine’s battlefields and the broad shifts in global politics tell a different story.
Russia is now conducting a brutal offensive in Kharkiv, a region in north-eastern Ukraine, where its troops have been chipping away at local defenses for months. Meanwhile, Western support, which until this year kept deliveries of arms flowing to Kyiv, no longer seems set in stone.
“The Ukrainians are very concerned about what the real objectives of allied nations are,” said Nicolas Tenzer, a Sciences Po lecturer and author of “Our War,” a book about Ukraine. “Are the Americans, the French and the Germans prepared to pull out all the stops so that Ukraine ultimately wins?”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to join world leaders at the Normandy ceremonies on Thursday, which will also be attended by U.S. President Joe Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. France, after initially floating the idea of inviting Russian representatives to mark the WWII sacrifices of Soviet troops, backtracked amid tensions with allied nations.
Zelenskyy was invited to attend in light of “D-Day’s historical resonance with the rightful combat of the Ukrainian nation today,” said an official with the French presidency.
On Friday, Biden will use the occasion to issue a rousing defense of democracy and of NATO that will cast the West’s support for Ukraine as driven by the same values that bound allied nations together during WWII. Along with celebrating transatlantic ties, Biden looks to use the speech to burnish his own democratic values in contrast to Donald Trump, his likely challenger for the U.S. presidency in November elections.
But the pledges of support and solidarity with Ukraine may ring hollow as the world braces for potentially seismic changes. If Biden loses the White House to Trump this fall, Europeans fear Ukraine could be deprived of its most important ally. Back in February, Trump threatened to “encourage” Russia to attack any NATO member that didn’t meet its financial obligations to the alliance.
“Even if Joe Biden is re-elected,” Tanzer cautioned, “not everyone in his administration wants to join forces with Ukraine and lead a victorious counter-offensive” against Russia.
Meanwhile, across Europe, traditional parties fear the far right could win big in this week’s European election, which will be seen as a bellwether for upcoming national contests.
“There are a lot of questions about what Trump would do in the White House, but there are other areas of vulnerability. Even if everybody hopes that the war will be over by the French presidential election in 2027, what happens if [National Rally leader] Marine Le Pen wins?” Tenzer asked.
The far-right Le Pen, whose lieutenant and EU election candidate Jordan Bardella is leading Macron’s party by over 18 points in POLITICO’s poll of polls, has been ambivalent about Ukraine aid. Meanwhile, in Germany, the far-right Alternative for Deutschland is set to grab 16 percent of the vote, on a par with the forecast result of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD).
In France, Macron, who has seized the mantle of one of Ukraine’s strongest allies, pledging support “until victory” and seeking to lead on military aid and NATO membership for Kyiv, is facing near-certain defeat in this weekend’s European election.
Past and present battles
Over 200 veterans from the U.S., the U.K. and Canada will attend the 80th anniversary ceremony, likely the last time soldiers who lived through the conflict will attend such a round-number jubilee, according to the French presidency.
The landings on the beaches of Normandy were the first stage of the invasion of Nazi-occupied Europe. By the end of the first day, the allied nations had established a foothold in France.
On Thursday the U.S. and the U.K. will hold national ceremonies at Colleville-sur-Mer and Ver-sur-Mer, respectively, before leaders gather for an international ceremony at Omaha Beach with over 12,000 participants. Scholz, Canadian PM Justin Trudeau and Dutch PM Mark Rutte — who is set to become the next secretary general of NATO — will also be present.
In an effort to sway voters, Biden and Macron are expected to harness the occasion to current threats. The French president has been campaigning on a pro-Europe platform, with support for Ukraine presented as a cornerstone of the continent’s battle against illiberalism and the far right.
Macron also wants to break new ground on Ukraine support, at the risk of dividing the alliance. The French president is leading talks on building a coalition of countries willing to send military trainers to Ukraine, an initiative that has not drawn enthusiastic support from the White House, according to two people familiar with the matter who were granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic.
Russia responded this week with a new threat of escalation, warning that Western trainers would not have immunity.
Macron will also host Biden in Paris on Saturday, marking the U.S president’s first state visit to France, ahead of a series of key summits including of G-7 and NATO leaders, where Ukraine will likely dominate talks.
While disagreements on a number of issues still await resolution, allied nations have appeared more aligned on allowing Ukrainian forces to strike military targets inside Russia.
But that will hardly assuage Ukraine’s longer-term anxieties.
“I am very concerned that we are not preparing to have a discussion about what more we can and need to do in order to ensure that Ukraine does not lose this war,” said Ivo Daalder, former U.S. ambassador to NATO.
“Because right now they’re losing.”
Eli Stokols contributed reporting
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