Ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas have been at standstill for weeks. But with international pressure mounting—and Israel threatening to expand its military operation into Rafah—there have been recent signs that a breakthrough could be possible.
Over the weekend, Axios’ Barak Ravid reported that Israel proposed a new hostage deal with Hamas that includes a willingness to discuss the “restoration of sustainable calm” in Gaza. It’s the first indication from Israel since Hamas’s October 7 Hamas attack that it would consider ending the war in Gaza. “We hope that what we have proposed is enough to bring Hamas into serious negotiations,” an Israeli official told Ravid. “We hope Hamas sees we are serious about reaching a deal—and we are serious.”
The proposal, which was reportedly developed by Israel and Egypt, would include a humanitarian ceasefire in exchange for the release of dozens of hostages—and, Ravik reported, a willingness by Israel to “make further significant concessions.” Hamas “should understand that it is possible that if the first stage is implemented, it will be possible to advance to the next stages and reach the end of the war,” the Israeli official told Axios.
Hamas—which has released proof-of-life videos of hostages in recent days—has not formally responded to the proposal, though a senior Hamas official told AFP News that it had “no major issues” with the offer. The United States, which has called for a ceasefire and for the release of all Hamas-held hostages, is urging the group to accept the deal. “The only thing standing between the people of Gaza and a ceasefire is Hamas,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in Saudi Arabia Monday. “They have to decide and they have to decide quickly.”
“I’m hopeful that they will make the right decision,” he added, describing Israel’s offer as “generous.”
A deal could represent welcome progress toward ending the conflict, which has left more than 34,000 Palestinians dead in more than seven months of hostilities and provoked international outrage. Unrest has boiled over particularly in the U.S., where protests have swept college campuses and President Joe Biden’s “ironclad” support for Israel is dividing the coalition that elected him four years ago.
Still, the prospects for a humanitarian pause, let alone long-term peace, remain challenging. Though the Hamas official told AFP that “the atmosphere is positive unless there are new Israeli obstacles,” U.S. officials told NBC News that the deal’s fate likely depends on Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who previously conditioned hostage negotiations on an end to the war, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, and the return of displaced Gazans—demands Israel has described as “delusional.” Israel’s threatened offensive in Rafah could add pressure on Hamas to consider a deal. But making good on that threat could come at a major cost to Israel: The U.S. and other allies have warned against a Rafah operation, with Biden describing such a move as a “red line”—a position he reiterated to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a call Sunday.
Netanyahu and other Israeli officials, meanwhile, are said to be increasingly concerned that the International Criminal Court may issue arrest warrants for them—along with Hamas leaders—over the war. The possibility, an Israeli official told the New York Times, has “informed Israeli decision-making in recent weeks,” though a defiant Netanyahu insisted on social media that the ICC “will not affect Israel’s actions.”
“We will not bow to it,” Netanyahu wrote. “Israel will continue to wage to victory our just war against genocidal terrorists and we will never stop defending ourselves.”
Majed Al-Ansari, a top official of Qatar, a key intermediary in the negotiations, suggested to Haaretz over the weekend that Netanyahu’s rhetoric does not demonstrate a “real commitment to end this conflict as soon as possible,” and called on both sides to show “more seriousness” in talks. “This needs to stop now,” the adviser to Qatar’s prime minister said, “and there is no other option than sitting around the table and getting a deal done.”
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