A surprisingly close special election in Tennessee is one of the biggest warning signs yet that Republicans could be in trouble during next year’s midterm elections, according to a veteran GOP communications specialist.
Matt Van Epps, 42, a Trump-endorsed Army veteran and former state commissioner, defeated Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn, 36, by just 9 percentage points in Tuesday’s race for Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, according to the Associated Press.
President Donald Trump swept the district by 22 points in 2024, meaning Behn overperformed by double digits.
The results continued a nationwide trend of weak electoral results for Republicans, after Democrats swept a slate of key elections last month—including gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey—and overperformed in Florida during a special election in the spring.
“This is one of the biggest flashing red light warning signs we’ve seen yet for Republicans,” communications expert Matt Whitlock wrote in a post on X. “If every House district in the country shifted left by this same amount – about 15 points – we would be looking at a blue wave far worse than 2018 – estimated 43 seats flipping.”
In a follow-up post the former communications chief for Sen. Orrin Hatch and senior adviser to the National Republican Senatorial Committee noted the final margin was closer to 13 points, putting 30 to 35 seats in danger during the midterms. PBS NewsHour correspondent Lisa Desjardins reported on X that 35 House Republicans won by 13 points or less in 2024.
“We had a great candidate, they had a terrible one,” Whitlock wrote. “Lessons: candidate quality matters, and R’s have work to do.”
The Daily Beast has also reached out for comment.
While Trump and other MAGA influencers publicly celebrated Van Epps’ win, many Republican operatives are panicking both publicly and privately.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis wrote on X that while off-year elections historically benefit the party that is out of power, the Tennessee results are “more glaring for today’s GOP because a chunk of voters who put them in power in 2024 are Trump-specific voters.”
“They will vote GOP down ballot when Trump is running but won’t turn out to vote for a typical congressman in a midterm when Trump isn’t running,” he wrote.
Speaking to Politico, an unnamed House Republican said of the race, “Tonight is a sign that 2026 is going to be a bitch of an election cycle. Republicans can survive if we play team and the Trump administration officials play smart. Neither is certain.”
Rep. Don Bacon, a Republican from Nebraska who is retiring, said he was happy with the victory in Tennessee but that the GOP “should not ignore” the fact that Republicans were failing to reach swing voters.
The single-digit win came despite national Republicans pouring millions of dollars into the race and going to bat for Van Epps, with House Speaker Mike Johnson visiting the district to campaign in person—and Trump calling into the rally.
“It was too close,” an aide for the GOP House leadership told Politico.
GOP strategist Matthew Bartlett, who worked for the first Trump administration, agreed that “none of it bodes well for the GOP in the midterms” and urged Republicans to get serious about the cost-of-living crisis.
“Being an ostrich with your head in the sand on key issues that matter most to Americans is not a strategy, or certainty not a winning one,” he told Politico.
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