It’s Primary Eve in New York. On the ballot on Tuesday? A series of raucous Democratic contests with the potential to radically reshape New York City’s congressional delegation and push it further to the left.
Plus, a Democratic race to challenge Representative Mike Lawler, a vulnerable Republican incumbent who holds a Hudson Valley-area seat that Democrats are desperate to flip.
But here we will focus largely on the New York City primaries, several of which will test Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s influence on city politics roughly half a year after the democratic socialist and national progressive star took office.
He and his allies are trying to unseat two Democratic incumbents, Representatives Daniel Goldman and Adriano Espaillat. They are also working to capture a third House seat, ending up on the opposing side of the retiring Representative Nydia Velázquez in the race to succeed her.
The races — closely watched by senior national Democrats including Representative Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic House leader and a New Yorker himself — reflect tensions along generational, ideological and insider-versus-outsider lines.
If Mamdani’s chosen candidates win, my colleagues Nicholas Fandos and Sally Goldenberg wrote, that “will go a long way toward establishing socialists as a major faction in New York City politics.”
“But a string of losses could be disastrous,” they added, “weakening the mayor’s political standing just six months into his term.”
For more on these high-drama races, I caught up with Nick, who covers New York politics for The Times. Below are excerpts from our Slack conversation, which has been edited and condensed.
Nick, thank you for joining. Where has the New York City campaign trail taken you recently?
Where hasn’t it taken me! A year after Mamdani’s primary win upended politics in New York, we are in the middle of an incredibly busy primary season here. I’m covering four different competitive House races in parts of Brooklyn, Manhattan and Queens.
Let’s talk about those. Is it fair to say that three of those races — Goldman versus Brad Lander, a former New York City comptroller; Espaillat versus Darializa Avila Chevalier, a democratic socialist; and the race to succeed Velázquez in her Brooklyn-and-Queens district — are, broadly speaking, turning into the liberal-versus-left contests we’ve seen in other Democratic primaries across the country?
Yes, in broad strokes. Though having covered elections for many years here in New York, I think these races also show us how far left the entire spectrum has moved. The more “moderate” or “establishment” candidates in these races were considered progressives just a few years ago.
In all of those cases, Mamdani has endorsed the more left-leaning candidate. Why did he decide to weigh in on these races, and is there any risk for him in doing so?
Mamdani has taken an unusually active role in these elections, and it is a big gamble for him. His goal is to try to leverage his own popularity to expand the footprint of his democratic socialist movement. If his candidates win these races, the number of D.S.A. members in Congress will stand to double. But if they lose, it could sap a big portion of Mamdani’s political capital just six months into his term and will have alienated a lot of allies.
Looking uptown, the Democratic primary to succeed Representative Jerry Nadler is less about ideology, right? What do you see as the fault lines shaping that race?
The candidates in this race broadly share policy positions and strong opposition to President Trump, but they have campaigned on vastly different priorities. Jack Schlossberg, the grandson of John F. Kennedy, is focused on using social media to win back younger voters. Micah Lasher has modeled himself as an all-purpose policy wonk. And another leading candidate, Alex Bores, has dedicated his campaign to making a case for regulating the artificial intelligence industry.
I did enjoy your headline about whether a self-described “nerd” can still get elected to Congress from Manhattan. You’ve written about all of these candidates, including a memorable piece capturing the messiness of the Schlossberg campaign. Does he still have a chance?
Polling would suggest this is not going to be Schlossberg’s year. He entered the race with virtually nothing on his résumé, which is a real challenge in a district like this one, where voters are extremely well-educated and pride themselves on their professional accomplishments. But then again, election outcomes often surprise us!
Of course. We make no predictions!
There has, however, been a lot of A.I. industry-aligned spending for and against Bores. What will the fate of his candidacy tell us about the politics of A.I. regulation?
We’ve seen more than $20 million spent by super PACs connected to industry players. The faction that generally opposes more government regulation also opposes Bores. Those in favor have been spending on his behalf. Of course, whichever side wins will claim some momentum. But to me, this race is just one of the first battles of a much bigger war. My main takeaway for now is that we should expect to see a lot more money from these players in the midterms.
Absolutely. Are there takeaways you think the national Democratic Party will have from these New York City primaries, or is it too hard to extrapolate much from such overwhelmingly Democratic districts?
New York tends to offer a preview of where Democratic politics is going nationally. The election of Representative Alexandria-Ocasio Cortez in 2018 helped push the national party leftward. Mamdani’s intense focus on affordability in the mayor’s race was widely imitated by Democrats across the country.
Let’s talk about a swing district outside the city. A Democratic primary in the Hudson Valley tomorrow will determine who will challenge Lawler, one of the most endangered House Republicans on the map. What’s your sense of how voters are thinking through their choices up there?
This is another close race. Cait Conley, an Army veteran, has generally led in polls. She may not be the most exciting candidate, but clearly many voters believe she would have the best profile to beat Lawler. Beth Davidson, a local county legislator, is very much in the race, though. Unlike in New York City, the more left-leaning candidate, Effie Phillips-Staley, appears less likely to prevail.
Are there other races I should have asked you about that you’ll be watching closely tomorrow?
There is one fascinating Republican primary, way upstate in the North Country of New York, to replace the retiring congresswoman Elise Stefanik. It pits a Trump-backed sticker magnate against a more staid state lawmaker. This would normally have been a safe Republican seat, but the primary fight has gotten so bitter and ugly that both parties think it could potentially put the district in play this fall.
Nick, thanks so much. You’ve given us a ton to watch for tomorrow. Last thing: What is your biggest question headed into Primary Day?
For me, it is whither the democratic socialists? If Mamdani’s slate prevails, I think we are going to see this group and their ideology get a lot of airtime headed into the 2028 elections. If they fizzle, moderates are going to feel empowered, and the mayor’s life might also get a lot more complicated here in New York City.
To our New York City or Hudson Valley readers: Are you voting in one of these Democratic primaries tomorrow? I’d love to hear how you thought about your choices and how you’re feeling about the Democratic Party more broadly right now.
Write me at [email protected]. If you’d be willing to be quoted, please just tell me — and include your full name, age and where you live. I may feature some of your answers in a special Wednesday edition of On Politics.
In the meantime, I’ll be back tomorrow evening with guidance on where to watch primary results for New York, as well as for Maryland, Utah and the runoff in South Carolina. See you then!
The post Will New York Swing Further to the Left? Here’s a Preview of Tuesday’s Primaries. appeared first on New York Times.
