Forget psychic octopuses, pundits, and betting markets — the best guess about who’ll win the World Cup might come from Wall Street.
Goldman Sachs has crunched the numbers for the tournament, but it’s still a close call to determine who could win the most-viewed event in sports.
Spain, France, and Argentina stand out above the rest, while the US’ chance is only about one in 100.
Goldman first published its World Cup forecasts before the tournament began, but analysts are updating them periodically, and on Thursday, shared a note after all 48 teams had played their first game of the tournament, giving a better idea of how the teams may fare on the big stage under pressure.
The Goldman analysts’ model predicts how many goals each team would score against a particular opponent, then simulates the team’s chances of progressing through each round.
It is largely based on historical performances, including the World Football Elo Ratings. This accounts for more variables than FIFA’s official rankings, such as the margin of victory and the importance of the game.
Analysts also incorporated each team’s goal-scoring talent, momentum, mentality, and geography — such as the country’s altitude and average temperature compared to where their World Cup games are played.
Goldman’s model found that Spain, France, and Argentina each have a 31.5%-31.7% chance of reaching the World Cup final.
By comparison, fourth-ranked England has a 15% chance of getting to the final.
When it comes to winning the whole thing, the model makes Spain the favorite on 20.4%.
France isn’t far behind, on 20%. Argentina, which won the last World Cup, has an 18% chance — slightly penalized by the statistical underperformance of reigning champions.
Any other team winning would likely be considered a surprise. England has the next highest probability, at 7.1%.
But that figure is actually up 1.6 percentage points since the tournament started — the most of any team — after England beat Croatia 4-2 on Wednesday evening in Texas.
Spain’s chances of winning the World Cup only dipped by 0.2 percentage points after the reigning European champions were held to a shocking goalless draw by Cape Verde.
Meanwhile, Goldman’s model lowered France’s chances by 0.3 after beating Senegal 3-1.
Portugal, the seventh-likeliest winners led by 41-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo, saw the biggest fall after playing their first game. After tying DR Congo 1-1, their chances dropped by 1 percentage point.
The US has the 11th-highest chance of winning the trophy, at only 1.2%. However, playing on their home turf with exciting, attacking-minded tactics, nothing can be ruled out.
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