Meteorologists along the Gulf Coast were closely watching a potential tropical system off Texas on Monday that was expected to douse the entire region with heavy rain throughout the week.
If the system intensifies into a named tropical storm, Arthur, it would be the first of this year’s Atlantic hurricane season. But even if the system does not, forecasters warned that its moisture would dump excessive amounts of rain from South Texas to the Florida Panhandle.
Already on Monday, the system’s downpours prompted flash flood warnings in Houston and San Antonio, and nearly 20 million people across South Texas and Louisiana were under a flood watch.
Brian Hurley, a meteorologist with the Weather Prediction Center, said it was possible some areas could record 10 to 15 inches of rain on Monday. That amount in a day is “really no joke,” he said, adding that in addition to the total rainfall amounts, the intense rate at which the rain would fall was also concerning to meteorologists.
Late Monday morning, the National Hurricane Center said there was a 50 percent chance that the storm would become organized enough to officially become Tropical Storm Arthur, and urged people in its path to prepare for heavy rain.
“With any kind of tropical air mass you have that potential for heavy flooding, whether it has a name or not,” said Haley Bailey, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Houston.
At least some areas around San Antonio, including Goss Creek, Texas, have already recorded nearly a foot of rain in the past day.
Many of the storms so far are “training,” Ms. Bailey said, describing the process through which one storm forms over an area, and — much like trains on a railroad track — storm after storm moves over the same exact location.
Here’s what to expect from the storms this week:
Monday through Tuesday
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Primary region affected: South Texas to the mid-Texas coast.
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Details: This region is expected to bear the brunt of the initial wave of heavy rainfall early in the week.
Tuesday night into Wednesday
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Primary region affected: The Upper Texas Coast and shifting into Louisiana.
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Details: As the system begins to move east, the core of the heavy rain moves away from the Central Texas Coast and starts pushing into the neighboring state.
Wednesday night into Thursday
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Primary region affected: Farther downwind into Louisiana, Southern Mississippi and Alabama.
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Details: The tropical moisture moves deeper into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Mr. Hurley specifically highlighted areas north of Baton Rouge, La.; Jackson, Miss., and Tuscaloosa, Ala., as most likely to face heavy rain by this time.
In early July 2021 another unnamed storm brought over 20 inches of rainfall to Rockport, Texas, over the course of five days. Similar amounts fell in nearby towns, causing flash flooding — particularly in and around Corpus Christi — and flooding across a dozen rivers and creeks across South Texas.
Likewise, this system has already brought some rivers in southeastern Texas to moderate flooding levels.
Mr. Hurley said many areas along the Texas coast could record four to eight inches, with some areas, like Galveston, likely to receive 10 inches or more.
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