Swiss voters defeated a nationwide ballot initiative on Sunday to limit the population to 10 million people, according to Swiss media projections. The vote rejected what would have been one of the most drastic measures taken by a European country to stem the arrival of new immigrants.
Returns, which came in quickly after polls closed at noon local time, showed the measure falling short of the majority it needed to pass. Swiss news outlets based their projection that the measure would ultimately fail on analyses of the votes remaining to be counted.
The measure’s support was heaviest in rural states, and its opposition was strongest in border regions, including the French-speaking areas in the west.
Polls had suggested a tight race, but the “no” campaign gained momentum in the days before the vote.
The referendum carried heavy implications for Swiss politics, the economy and the country’s relationship with the European Union, at a time of increased national anxiety over global security and commerce.
The vote took place amid a wider backlash to migration across Europe, and at a time when Switzerland, one of the world’s richest countries, is struggling with concerns over quality of life, affordability and environmental sustainability.
Supporters of the population cap sought to harness all of those worries, in an effort to appeal to centrist voters who otherwise view immigration positively.
Opponents said the measure would hurt the Swiss economy. They argued that it would slow the influx of skilled foreign workers, like entrepreneurs and engineers, who help boost growth. It could also starve the country of much-needed service workers, like nurses, just as a wide swath of the Swiss work force hits retirement age.
Switzerland has about 9.1 million residents, an increase of more than a quarter this century. Immigration, largely from other European countries, has powered that growth, with far fewer arrivals from Africa or the Middle East than its neighbors.
The cap would have forced government officials to take steps to curb the number of newcomers, as the population approached 10 million people. It would have triggered some restrictions at 9.5 million, which the country could hit in the next decade.
If the population hit 10 million, it would have instructed officials to take more drastic steps, culminating with potentially withdrawing from a treaty with the European Union that allows the Swiss and citizens of the bloc to freely move and work in one another’s countries.
Government officials warned ahead of the vote that passing the population cap could imperil efforts to deepen ties with the European Union, at a time when Switzerland’s trading relationship with the United States has been disrupted by tariffs imposed by President Trump.
The vote was a product of Switzerland’s form of direct democracy, under which groups that gather 100,000 signatures can refer questions to voters in a nationwide referendum. The plebiscite on the capping the population was backed by the country’s largest political party, the right-wing Swiss People’s Party, which favors limits on migration and has sponsored several migration-themed measures in the past, including a ban on the construction of mosque minarets.
Analysts said the People’s Party appeared to have broadened the measure’s appeal by focusing on kitchen-table issues like housing costs and traffic congestion.
Fabio Wasserfallen, a political scientist and pollster at the University of Bern, said ahead of the vote that “conditions are better” in Switzerland compared to other countries.
“But also, affordability is an issue. All these crises are an issue,” he added. “Migration can come to be a focal point to say: ‘Enough is enough. This is going too fast. My life is not improving.’”
Stefanie Bailer, a political scientist at the University of Basel, said before the vote that the referendum reflected broader opposition to immigration around Europe.
“In a lot of other western European countries, similar initiatives would pass,” she said.
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