A new Gallup poll showing economic confidence at its lowest point in nearly four years is sending alarm bells through Republican ranks ahead of the midterms, according to MS NOW’s Ali Vitali — and the numbers are bad enough that even the party’s most loyal voters are starting to ask questions.
Just 16 percent of Americans now rate the economy as excellent or good, according to the poll. Forty-nine percent say it is poor. And 76 percent say economic conditions are getting worse — the highest reading since 2023. Only 20 percent say conditions are improving.
“Very scary numbers for Republicans,” said Morning Joe host Jonathan Lemire, who noted that midterm elections are historically decided on economic issues.
Vitali agreed, but said the public optimism coming from Republican leadership masks a very different private conversation. “We are never going to hear the speaker say, gosh, yeah, things really do look bad for us,” she said. “Once he starts doing that, the whole ball game is over.” But she added that private Republican sentiment tells a different story entirely — one of genuine concern and handwringing.
The economic anxiety is being compounded, Vitali said, by the Iran war’s direct impact on household budgets, particularly at the gas pump. The average price of gas nationally now stands at around $4.52 per gallon, up from $3.19 a year ago.
Making matters worse for Republicans is what Vitali described as a perception problem that could prove fatal in November: voters know Republicans control the White House and both chambers of Congress, and they are going to hold them accountable for kitchen table issues regardless of what the party says caused them.
That accountability is made sharper by what happened when Republicans left Washington last week for a weeklong recess without passing their signature reconciliation bill — a measure that was supposed to be straightforward immigration legislation but collapsed under the weight of Trump’s demands, including $1 billion for a White House ballroom and $1.8 billion in potential slush fund payments to January 6th rioters.
“They haven’t done a ton with their majorities,” Vitali said, noting voters are noticing.
The bigger question, she said, is whether key constituencies that swung Republican in 2024 — particularly Hispanic voters in states like Texas — are permanent members of the coalition or swing voters who can be won back. Democrats are already betting on the latter.
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