Gavin Newsom finally said the quiet part out loud.
Last week, Newsom admitted he has a secret “break the glass” plan to stop Republicans from advancing in the governor’s race.
That comment revealed how the California Democrat elite views this election. They are worried. Not about whether a Democrat will make the top two. No, they’re worried that Republicans will finally unite behind a candidate who can compete statewide and threaten the corrupt machine that has run California into the ground.
And for Newsom, it’s even more personal. As we’ve seen for years, his only interest is running for president. Losing California to a Republican would be a massive setback for his 2028 primary campaign.
But even a Republican candidate qualifying for the top two would be a nightmare for Newsom, because it would mean a high-profile debate about his disastrous record. That’s the last thing he wants. Far better for Newsom’s presidential ambitions to have two Democrats out-bidding each other on the left.
So Newsom’s “break the glass” strategy is not what many Republicans have assumed. It’s not a scheme to stop a Republican sweep of the top two spots. That idea was always a fantasy.
The governor’s real strategy is much simpler: Encourage Republican voters to imagine that both GOP candidates will make the general election, leading them to split their support between two candidates, dividing the opposition vote and clearing the way for a November runoff between Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer.
I hear Republicans repeating the Newsom narrative everywhere: “Maybe Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco can both make the top two.” But for months, the numbers haven’t been there for that theory.
The current RealClearPolitics polling average shows me at 20%, Xavier Becerra at 19.8%, Tom Steyer at 14%, and Chad Bianco at 13%. After months in the race, the field has started to solidify. The polling consistently shows our campaign in first place statewide, while Chad Bianco remains stuck in the low teens.
If this were a straightforward Republican primary, it would be over: I have won the Republican vote in a landslide. One recent poll showed me winning 60% of likely GOP primary voters, compared to Chad Bianco’s 33%.
Two weeks before an election is too late for wishful thinking. Now it’s about the math.
In a top-two primary, you cannot advance with support from just one small corner of the electorate. You need to build a broad enough coalition to finish in the top two statewide. For months, the polling has been clear and consistent: Only one Republican campaign is doing that.
That’s why the “two Republicans in the top two” fantasy is so useful to Newsom and the Democrat machine. It gives permission for Republican primary voters to divide themselves while Becerra and Steyer consolidate support on the other side. If enough Republicans fall for it, Californians will be left with exactly the outcome Gavin Newsom wants: a general election between Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer.
That would be a disaster for our state. It would not only kill off any chance for change, it would also kill off any hope of saving congressional seats, making progress in the state Legislature, even of passing Voter ID.
Of course, the best way to avoid that is a united Republican team. Chad Bianco has made it clear he has no intention of dropping out of this race, but I’m going to make one last plea: Chad, let’s do this for the sake of the state we both love.
I’ll meet anywhere, anytime, and I’m open to any ideas for how we can work together. The numbers don’t lie: You can’t win, but your continued presence in the race means that California could lose — big time. The power to avoid that is in your hands.
It’s make-or-break for California. After 16 years of one-party rule, we are at rock bottom: the highest poverty rate, unemployment rate and cost of living in America. We have to stop the insanity: the crime, the chaos, the homelessness. The taxes and regulations, the ideological extremism, the calamitous failure of our public schools.
Our positive, pragmatic campaign is building a populist coalition that can win the June primary and beat the Democrat machine in November. Our “Califordable” message is resonating: $3 gas, your first $100,000 tax free, electric bills cut in half, a home you can afford to buy.
Ballots have arrived. Voting is underway. The math is clear and simple: There’s only one vote that can bring about change, and that’s a vote for me. A vote for Chad Bianco is a vote for two Democrats in the top two. That’s why Gavin Newsom is pushing that narrative.
Don’t fall for it.
Steve Hilton is a Republican candidate for governor of California.
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