Keisha Lance Bottoms, a former Atlanta mayor and the front-runner on the Democratic side of the Georgia governor’s race, already has her sights set on the November election, with President Trump as her chief foil.
But her competitors in the Democratic primary on Tuesday are betting that she will not get enough votes to avoid a runoff in June.
The candidates essentially vying for second place have tried hard to differentiate themselves: Geoff Duncan is a former Republican hoping to appeal to moderates. Jason Esteves is emphasizing his relative youth, as a millennial, and his mix of business and political experience. And Michael Thurmond is a low-key moderate who highlights his decades spent working in state and local government.
But they have been unified in their argument that Ms. Bottoms has vulnerabilities — namely, harsh reviews of her single term as mayor of the state’s largest city — that could deny Democrats a win in an election where they have high hopes of claiming the governor’s office for the first time in more than two decades.
“Georgians are looking for an alternative option,” Mr. Esteves, a former state senator, said in an interview. “One that doesn’t have baggage, one that has a clear vision for the future, that gives people something to vote for, not just against.”
As Gov. Brian Kemp, a popular Republican, prepares to step aside after two terms, the Democratic primary might seem tranquil compared with the Republican side of the race, where Rick Jackson, a billionaire health care executive, has poured his fortune into getting to the front of a pack that includes some of the state’s best-known elected officials.
Still, Democrats believe the landscape in Georgia has all the makings of a good year for their party: Mr. Trump’s unpopularity, growing bipartisan frustration over affordability and a base galvanized in part by outrage over the Supreme Court decision weakening the Voting Rights Act.
The excitement has been reflected in early voting: Nearly 57 percent of the ballots cast so far have been in the Democratic primary, and total turnout has outpaced the 2022 primary election by almost 20 percent, according to Georgia Votes, a service tabulating voter data provided by state election officials.
This year’s optimism is built on gains achieved by Democrats in the state over the past decade. A long, dismal era of practically guaranteed losses in statewide elections gave way to newfound viability as rapid population growth caused favorable demographic shifts, and diligent groundwork registered and mobilized voters of color.
Stacey Abrams, a former state legislator, came close to beating Mr. Kemp in 2018, providing one of the earliest signals of the party’s renewed vigor. She lost by about 1.5 percentage points, or fewer than 55,000 voters. Two years later, Joseph R. Biden Jr. became the first Democrat to win Georgia in a presidential election in nearly 30 years, and in the same election cycle, two Democrats — Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff — ousted the state’s incumbent Republican senators.
Still, in a rematch in 2022 with Mr. Kemp, Ms. Abrams lost by eight points. Former Vice President Kamala Harris lost the state in 2024. And Republicans still hold every statewide elected office other than the two Senate seats and control the state legislature.
Ms. Bottoms gained national prominence for her response to the turmoil of 2020. First, she challenged Mr. Kemp and other Republican leaders over their aggressive push to roll back Covid restrictions and reopen businesses early in the pandemic. Then, as racial justice protests turned violent and destructive, she was recognized for her plea to demonstrators: “What are you changing by tearing up a city?” She was even discussed as a possible running mate for Mr. Biden that year.
But as the pandemic dragged on, Ms. Bottoms became associated with the city’s struggles. Crime and violence increased. The ranks of the Police Department thinned rapidly as morale sank. Residents in Buckhead, a wealthy enclave of Atlanta, tried to secede from the city.
She surprised Atlanta by deciding against seeking a second term, saying at the time, “It is abundantly clear to me today that it is time to pass the baton on to someone else.” She joined the Biden administration in 2022 as a senior adviser, leading its public engagement office for about 15 months.
Her critics argue the disappointing conclusion to her mayoralty provided a major opening for her rivals to attack.
Her campaign has dismissed the unease as overblown and argues that Ms. Bottoms has plenty to be proud of, pointing to major companies that moved into the city during her term, pay increases she helped negotiate for police officers and firefighters, and her work to bolster the city’s supply of affordable housing.
“Voters are excited about Keisha’s vision to stand up for our rights, lower costs and take on Trump’s bad policies,” TaNisha Cameron, a spokeswoman for Ms. Bottoms, said in a statement. “That’s why she’s leading in the polls, and why she’s the best candidate to win back the governorship for Democrats for the first time in the 21st century.”
The trio of candidates trailing her in the polls say that in a head-to-head matchup, they can make a case for themselves as a better choice who can build the kind of coalition necessary for a Democrat to win in Georgia.
Mr. Duncan, the state’s lieutenant governor from 2019 to 2023, had been one of the Republican leaders who defied Mr. Trump in 2020 as he tried to overturn his loss in the state. Mr. Duncan became an independent, then joined the Democratic Party shortly before entering the governor’s race.
His pitch to Democrats is that he can woo voters the party has struggled to reach. To some, voters, like Rickie Nelson, who supported Mr. Kemp in the past but is open to voting for a Democrat this time around, the argument makes sense. “I like the fact that he’s like, ‘Hey that’s crazy, I’m not that. I’m switching sides,’” said Mr. Nelson, 45, who lives in the Buckhead neighborhood of Atlanta.
Some Democrats appreciate that Mr. Duncan stood up to Mr. Trump but feel that having a shared enemy does not necessarily make him one of them. “It feels a bit disingenuous,” Ayron Butler, an owner ofBlack Coffee ATL, a coffee shop in southwest Atlanta, said of Mr. Duncan’s conversion. She also had doubts about Ms. Bottoms. “I just don’t see commitment with her, and this is a time where commitment matters,” she said.
She is voting for Mr. Esteves.
A former Atlanta school board member who owns a health care clinic and restaurants, Mr. Esteves has focused on affordability as a frustration that transcends traditional partisan boundaries, and he has tried to present himself as a fresh face.
Mr. Thurmond is the only candidate in the governor’s race who has been elected to statewide office as a Democrat, having served three terms as labor commissioner. He has also been a state lawmaker, a candidate for U.S. Senate and a county-level executive.
As a result, he argues, his campaign is less about promise than proven experience.
Alisha T. Searcy, the chief executive of the Center for Strong Public Schools and a former state representative, said she knows each of the Democratic candidates in the race and sees a capable governor in each of them. “We have real choices,” she said.
Hers is Ms. Bottoms.
She recalled one of their earliest conversations, more than a decade ago, when they stumbled into each other while shopping at a Dillard’s department store. Ms. Bottoms was a city councilwoman, Ms. Searcy in the state legislature.
“She’s a down-to-earth mom, wife, public servant like I am,” she said. “It’s that ‘I can have real conversations with you and you get it.’”
She believes it was possible for Ms. Bottoms to win the primary outright. Even if she doesn’t, Ms. Searcy added, Democrats will head to the general election unified and invigorated.
“The stakes are too high,” Ms. Searcy said, “and we understand the assignment.”
Rick Rojas is the Atlanta bureau chief for The Times, leading coverage of the South.
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