Georgette Lang had planned three international trips this year to celebrate her 60th birthday and her daughter’s college graduation, but in the weeks since the United States attacked Iran on Feb. 28, she postponed all three, resulting in a loss of nearly $16,000.
It didn’t feel “safe or appropriate to be gallivanting around the world as an American after the government started a war,” said Ms. Lang, 59, an interior designer from Philadelphia. She had planned to visit Italy, Switzerland, France and Japan over the summer and fall. “It’s a gut-wrenching punch financially, but I didn’t choose flexible booking options because I was sure we would go,” she said.
Instead, Ms. Lang plans to stay close to her home over the summer and celebrate her birthday with family in Cape May, N.J. “It feels like the pandemic all over again, when you have a big urge to travel, but you know in your gut that the right thing to do is to stay put,” she said.
Faced with economic uncertainty, rising airfares and geopolitical instability that has prompted the State Department to issue a global travel warning, many Americans are rethinking their summer travel plans, either changing destinations or canceling their trips entirely. An April poll, by the market research firm YouGov and the travel rewards website The Points Guy, found that 24 percent of Americans had reconsidered travel because of recent global events.
Among the respondents, 15 percent said they were avoiding some destinations because of safety concerns, while 20 percent said they were avoiding international travel altogether. Outbound travel from the United States fell 2.1 percent in March and continued to drop in April, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection data.
Data from the aviation analytics firm Cirium shows a 10.5 percent decline in July bookings from the United States to Europe compared with last year. The data was compiled from third-party sources and online travel agencies between Jan. 7 and April 21 and it does not reflect flights booked directly through the airlines.
Travel companies and advisers say they are seeing more people change or postpone their travel plans rather than cancel them. Some clients are pivoting to domestic destinations or international destinations far from the conflict in the Middle East, like Spain and Portugal.
“We’ve had a private group shift from Kenya to Portugal because it simply felt more comfortable to them,” said Peggy Goldman, the president of Friendly Planet Travel, a global tour operator that focuses on affordable travel experiences. The company has received calls from clients who are nervous about the trips they have booked this year. “But despite everything, there is still a strong desire to travel,” Ms. Goldman said. The biggest impact has been on future bookings, with people hesitant to commit to long-haul and complex itineraries in advance.
While the pace of bookings for Americans traveling abroad is down, that could change if they book their summer vacations at the last minute, said Tariq Khan, a senior economist at the research firm Tourism Economics. This could happen “if a peace deal is made, which would cause uncertainty to fade and prices to fall,” he said.
With an increase in international airfares, which are up by more than 30 percent on average, and thousands of flight cancellations driven by higher jet fuel prices, some travelers are consolidating their Europe trips this summer and choosing train travel over flying, according to Sarah Johnson, the owner of the luxury travel company Paper, Ink, & Passports.
When Lauren Bailey read about warnings that jet fuel might run out in Europe over the summer, she adjusted the timing of her planned trip to Greece and Italy from June to October. It was the second time she changed her travel plans this year, after canceling a trip to Mexico in March because of cartel violence there.
Ms. Bailey, who is 47 and lives in Seattle, said she felt whiplash from following President Trump’s statements on the status of the war with Iran and pushed her Europe trip back. She hoped that a peace deal would be reached by then.
“I want to enjoy this trip and not worry about getting stuck because my flight gets canceled or being harassed because I’m an American,” she said. Ms. Bailey currently has no plans to travel this summer. “I’ll wait to see what happens with gas prices and might head south for a little road trip,” she said.
Despite the unpredictably of global events, many travelers are choosing to stick with their plans. Addison Olian, 77, a photographer and seasoned traveler from Sausalito, Calif., still plans to depart for his two-month trip to Italy on May 5. He said he considered canceling the trip “at least 50 times,” but instead lowered his expectations and reorganized his itinerary to make it more manageable.
“I am aware that being American abroad during a conflict can make one more visible, and that Europeans can see us through the actions of our government,” he said. “But I am prepared, and I believe the answer to an unstable world cannot always be retreat.”
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Ceylan Yeğinsu is a travel reporter for The Times who frequently writes about the cruise industry and Europe, where she is based.
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