Election Day turnout in Virginia is on track to be considerably lower than it was during the 2025 governor’s race, breaking with the high interest seen during the early voting period, in which nearly 1.4 million people cast ballots.
Election Day turnout tends to lean toward Republicans, and early voting and mail-in ballots tend to favor Democrats. But while the partisan split of the early vote was similar to what was seen in the governor’s race, the Election Day vote on Tuesday appeared to be down more significantly in Democratic areas, according to precinct-level turnout data available at midday. Precincts that voted overwhelmingly for Republicans in the past had smaller declines when compared with 2025.
Drawing conclusions about the final outcome of an election based wholly on turnout is unreliable, even once the data is complete, as partisan affiliation is not a reliable indicator of vote choice. And this election, in which voters are deciding on an amendment to the state’s Constitution, falls outside traditional partisan lines.
The amendment would temporarily restore redistricting powers to the General Assembly, in an attempt to offset redistricting efforts made in other states with the encouragement of President Trump. If passed, Democrats could potentially pick up as many as four additional House seats, leaving Virginia with only one safe Republican district, though the amendment would still face court challenges.
While Election Day turnout at midday was on track to be down throughout the state, the decline was particularly steep in Northern Virginia, a region where Democrats typically win by large margins.
In Fairfax County, Virginia’s largest, Election Day turnout showed a 25 percent decline from where it stood at the same point in last year’s election. In Alexandria, the state’s seventh most populous city, turnout was 21 percent below where it was at the same point last year.
Alex Lemonides is a data journalist at The Times, working on a team that analyzes election results and conducts political polls.
The post Election Day Turnout in Virginia Is Down Significantly From 2025, After Strong Early Voting appeared first on New York Times.
