‘Now this is interesting’: Data guru spots advantage that would put Dems in ‘catbird seat’

CNN’s Harry Enten highlighted a potential advantage that could help Democrats regain the House majority in this fall’s midterm elections.

Voters will decide on a contentious redistricting measure in Virginia that would redraw the state’s congressional map to give Democrats an advantage in 10 of its 11 seats, and Enten examined how Tuesday’s election results would impact the November contest.

“It all started back in Texas last summer, if I do recall,” Enten said. “It feels like years ago, but it was less than a year ago, and you know what? It’s just been Democrats and Republicans going back and forth. It started in Texas, then it went to California. You had Ohio, you had Utah. We’ve had North Carolina recently, but so far, the grand math is this most likely to gain House seats from mid-decade redistricting currently. Look at that, they all cancel each other out at zero, about zero – neither side gaining.”

“But if this Virginia measure does, in fact, pass tonight, Democrats would be in the catbird seat, in the driver’s seat,” he added. “They would have a three-to-four seat advantage because of redistricting. But this is not some mammoth switcheroo in terms of talking, you know, 10, 20 seats. What we’re really talking about is moving that ball just a little bit, and Democrats move it just a little bit to the other side of the field if in fact that measure passes tonight.”

That seemingly small advantage could be just enough to tip control of the House of Representatives, according to Enten.

“Now this is interesting,” he said. “You know, I said it’s just moving the ball just a little bit down the field, but right now in politics, it’s all just about getting the ball just a little bit more down the field, right, because what does a three-seat gain mean? I mean, just look at the House seat math. The margin of the GOP majority in the House post the 2024 elections was essentially two seats. That is how many seats they could lose before, in fact, losing on a party-line vote. So if now all of a sudden we’re talking about in Virginia that this measure passes tonight, well, the Dems likely gain from post, the redistricting post.”

“Virginia would in fact be three seats plus,” Enten added. “So this alone would eliminate that Republican majority in the House, and that is why there’s been just all this money thrown into this race, because three or four seats could mean the entire ballgame in terms of who controls the U.S. House of Representatives.”