VALLEY COTTAGE, N.Y. — At 5 a.m., Marvel Produce’s trucks load up with stacks of fresh mangoes, cucumbers, cauliflower and tomatoes and begin their deliveries, passing by a gas station advertising diesel for $6.60 a gallon.
The hike since the Iran war began means Marvel is spending over 25 percent more to fuel its 17 delivery trucks. The produce the company is buying from all over the country costs more, too. Diesel costs have forced the small wholesaler to increase what it charges restaurants, caterers and hotels across the tristate area.
“I would say this is the worst year in my career, besides covid and 2008,” said Mike Scicchitano, a 30-year veteran of the industry who co-owns Marvel Produce. He doesn’t consider himself political, and stresses that his views are his own, but said the war and ensuing fuel costs have exacerbated his dismal view of Washington.
Dari Sonera-Scicchitano, Mike’s wife and another co-owner, said she is considering voting in the midterm elections for the first time because “we need change,” starting with ending the war and bringing fuel prices down.
The Scicchitanos are among millions of businesses and households across America feeling pinched by rising gasoline prices, now averaging $4.05 a gallon nationwide, since President Donald Trump launched strikes against Iran. A crucial shipping path for oil has been mostly closed for seven weeks,and it’s unclear when it might fully reopen. These higher costs are adding to voters’ concerns about affordability, weighing on Republicans running in competitive U.S. House districts that could determine control of the chamber next year.
New York’s 17th Congressional District, one of 17 “toss-up” districts Democrats are targeting, is on the front lines. It is one of only three districts where voters chose Vice President Kamala Harris for president and a Republican for Congress in 2024, in this case incumbent Michael Lawler.
In conversations with nearly two dozen people across the district, many expressed frustration with the Trump administration over the war. Some said that they have faith that prices will come back down and that the war hasn’t affected their political preferences. But almost all said increased gas prices have affected their monthly budget.
Stephen Jamieson, 78, stopped by the Sunoco gas station in New City to buy a lotto ticket on his way to work as a crossing guard for Clarkstown. He drives 20 miles a day between home and work, and the increased gas prices have cost him around $50 more over the past month than usual.
Jamieson supported Trump in 2024 in the hopes that he would send out another stimulus check, but he said he feels as if Trump “doesn’t care” since gas prices have risen. “It’s costing everybody more money,” he said.
Republicans already faced daunting odds before the war began; the president’s party often loses ground in midterm elections. Now, the cost of gas — clear to consumers and slow to recalibrate — threatens to make that even more challenging.
“It’s the most visible sign of inflation in the economy. People drive by gas price signs every day and fill up their tanks every week. There’s a direct correlation between presidential approval ratings and gas prices,” said Alex Conant, a veteran Republican strategist. “And midterms tend to be referendums on the White House.”
Lawler has said that bringing down the cost of living is his top priority, touting his support for the Republican tax law that has resulted in bigger refunds on average this year and his successful efforts to increase a state and local tax deduction that most of his party opposed. He supports the war, which he said is necessary to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon.
“People want to see prices come down. That’s what we have been focused on throughout my time in Congress,” Lawler told The Washington Post. “Prior to March 1st, gas prices were below $3 for the first time in five years. The short-term volatility in the oil markets because of the war obviously has caused a spike, but as the war gets resolved, the gas prices are going to come down.”
The Democrats running to replace Lawler have argued he should challenge Trump on the war. They have also highlighted other economic impacts of the Republican tax bill, such as cuts to Medicaid and food stamps. Army veteran Cait Conley said the administration has shown “America no longer works for working people,” and Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson said, “People want us to stand up and fight for them in whatever capacity we can.”
The United States is nearing the end of a two-week ceasefire with Iran. Oil shipments have been blocked in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping route through which 20 percent of the world’s oil travels. Iran said Friday that it would allow traffic to resume, causing the price of oil to plunge more than 10 percent, only to close the strait a day later as a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in place.
Gas prices could return to prewar levels within two months in the “best-case scenario,” if peace talks were successful and the war ended quickly, said Pavel Molchanov, an energy analyst at Raymond James.
Trump told Fox Business on Wednesday that he expects gas prices “will be somewhere around where we were, maybe even lower” by the midterms and argued the economy is “doing so well.”
Trump “is committed to maintaining Republicans’ majority in Congress to continue delivering wins for the American people,” White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said in a statement. “The President has been clear that these are short-term disruptions, which the administration has taken several significant actions to mitigate.” On Wednesday, Trump said the war, which began in late February, is “very close to over.” On Sunday, he said U.S. officials were heading to Pakistan to resume peace talks.
Rey Solano, president of a Republican club in Somers, a town in northern Westchester County, and the owner of a small business that sells and services stair lifts for the elderly and disabled, said he has had to raise prices for service calls because of the increased gas prices. The price hikes haven’t changed how he feels about Trump or Lawler.
“It just gives us justification that we have to generate our own fuel in the U.S.,” Solano, 58, said as he walked into Lawler’s town hall April 12.
Trump campaigned in 2024 on bringing down inflation, which had peaked under President Joe Biden after the covid-19 pandemic, marking the quickest rise in prices in roughly 40 years. He pledged to bring gas prices below $2 per gallon if elected. Gas prices remained relatively steady through 2025 before dropping below $3 per gallon in December, January and February, according to AAA.
Sixty percent of Americans disapprove of the U.S. military strikes on Iran, according to an Ipsos poll conducted in late March, and 56 percent said they believe the war will have a negative impact on their own financial situation. Trump’s overall approval rating has remained around 38 percent, though his approval rating for the economy hit a low of 31 percent in late March, according to a poll by CNN and SSRS.
Danielle Cifuni, 42, was on the phone with her sister when she pulled up to the pump in New City. “Oh my God,” she said. “It’s $5.45 per gallon.”
Cifuni owns two Playa Bowl franchises, in Bronxville and the Bronx. Her margins for açai bowls are shrinking as the cost of shipping in fruit has skyrocketed and she can’t raise prices. She has voted for both Trump and Lawler but said she is not sure how she will vote this fall. She wants the federal government to focus more on domestic issues.
“To be the superpower and make sure everybody else is good, of course I believe in that. But if I can’t pay my bills, that’s crazy,” she said. “I know so many people now that are living paycheck to paycheck who are making twice, three times the amount of money that our parents made.”
Rafael Febiar, 64, is on a fixed income since he retired from his job as the manager of a Kay Jewelers. He and his wife have cut down on expensive grocery items like steak and seafood and stopped eating out to save money since gas and other expenses have gone up. He usually votes “straight Democrat” and said he is motivated to vote in the midterms this year.
Democrats in Congress should “kick out Trump” if they regain control, he said. “Every time Republicans are in, they make us poor.”
Mariana Alfaro contributed to this report.
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