Week 11 is where the college football calendar starts to separate the contenders from the pretenders. The College Football Playoff committee has shown its hand with a few rounds of controversial rankings, but teams now know exactly what they’re playing for. That doesn’t always show up in the point spread.
Some teams are chasing a seed. Others are protecting one, and a few are just trying to get to the finish line with their pride and coaching staff intact. Miami is coming off its first loss of the season. Tennessee is trying to justify a top-eight ranking on the road and South Carolina is staring down a visit from Georgia next week. Spots like these are where lines get shaded toward the brand name and away from what’s happening on the field.
That’s where I’m looking this week. Over the past month, the board has priced in reputation more than results, and it’s created some value worth chasing. Two of these plays are road underdogs most bettors won’t touch, and a third is a home dog getting points from a ranked team that hasn’t proven much away from Knoxville.
Here are my five best bets for Saturday.
This line opened higher and has slid to 7.5, so the market is cooling on the Gamecocks. I’m happy to buy at the lower number.
No. 17 South Carolina has won four straight. Arkansas is 3-6, 1-5 in SEC play, and won’t be going bowling in Ryan Silverfield’s first season. With South Carolina, Texas and LSU to close the year, the Razorbacks are mostly playing out the string.
LaNorris Sellers is playing through a sore ankle, which could mean fewer designed runs this week. Against this Arkansas defense, that shouldn’t matter much.
Georgia coming to town next week creates a lookahead angle, and I understand the concern. But a team that has won four in a row with a playoff path still in front of it shouldn’t sleepwalk through a road trip to a 3-6 opponent.
The pick: South Carolina -7.5 (-112)
Wake Forest is a road underdog against an unranked team, and that’s hard to square with how well this team has played. I understand, people still don’t believe in this team, but I believe in them enough in this spot.
The No. 13 Demon Deacons have outscored their last five opponents 264-31, which is remarkable in any conference. They rank first nationally in EPA per play, have covered seven straight and are an ACC-best 7-2 against the spread.
The case for SMU is they are extremely stingy at home. The Mustangs are 11-0 at home in ACC play since joining the league, and Kevin Jennings has been much better at home than on the road. But SMU has allowed 28 points in back-to-back games, and Wake’s offense has been scoring at will.
I love Wake’s offense against this SMU defense right now.
The pick: Wake Forest +1.5 (-115)
Texas Tech is ranked No. 12, and Oklahoma State only just made the CFP Top 25. The rankings point one way, and the matchup points the other.
Oklahoma State’s offense ranks second in the FBS in total yards. Texas Tech’s defense ranks 110th in total defense and 136th against the pass, near the very bottom of the sport. Drew Mestemaker also gets a standalone night game on ESPN, a national stage that can only help his Heisman and draft stock.
The Red Raiders have been out-gained in every road game this season. A 73.5 total tells you points are expected, and Oklahoma State is the team better built to win that kind of game.
I’m passing on the 3.5-point spread and taking the moneyline. I just need the Cowboys to win.
The pick: Oklahoma State ML (-170)
First thing’s first, I’ll take any edge I can get. And the Tennessee football team was caught up in the nationwide groundingof planes last night. I liked the Aggies before I learned of the Vols’ travel issues. Tennessee is No. 8 and laying points on the road against a 4-5 team. The public has seen that number and hammered the Volunteers early. I’m going the other way.
Tennessee’s last win deserves a closer look. The Vols beat Kentucky 34-6, but it was 13-6 entering the fourth quarter and the yardage was dead even. They also lost their last road game, at South Carolina. Seventeen of their 24 home touchdowns came against Missouri State, Arizona State and The Citadel. Not exactly a group of juggernaut defenses.
The Aggies have been more unlucky than bad. In a 17-9 loss to South Carolina, they had 26 first downs and 457 yards without a turnover. Marcel Reed has struggled as a pocket passer this season at times, but with Holmon Wiggins now calling plays, expect Reed to get out and use his legs more.
The concern is real. Tennessee leads the nation with 39 sacks, and Reed completes fewer than half his passes under pressure. Still, a home dog playing its first SEC home game in over a month is the right side of this number. Gig ’em.
The pick: Texas A&M +2.5 (-105)
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This is my favorite bet on the card.
Manny Diaz is a Miami native who was fired by the Hurricanes after three seasons. Now he brings Duke back to his old building, and he’s 12-4 against the spread as a road underdog in his career. Games like this tend to mean a little more. Darian Mensah facing his former team adds another revenge layer for the Blue Devils.
Miami leads the nation at 45 points per game, but the offense hasn’t been the same without receiver Malachi Toney. The Hurricanes are also coming off their first loss of the season, albeit a controversial one, 31-24 to Notre Dame. Duke’s defense allows 13 points per game, fifth in the country, and has held five of nine opponents to single digits.
Nearly two touchdowns is a lot of points to give against a defense this good and I think Duke is very much in this game in the late going.
The pick: Duke +13.5 (-108)
Odds via DraftKings and subject to change.
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