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Only one of these Oscar contenders is likely to land a best picture nom. Which will it be?

November 13, 2026
in News
Only one of these Oscar contenders is likely to land a best picture nom. Which will it be?

We tend to think of cinematic crowd-pleasers as movies that contain underdogs and uplift, a few tears, a little laughter, a cup of corn and an ending that melts your heart. These films rarely receive much love from Oscar voters. But they have been nominated for best picture (“The Blind Side”) and, on occasion, even won (“CODA”).

This year, we have a quartet of crowd-pleasing contenders vying for (most likely) one spot among the best picture nominees. Will one of these underdogs go the distance? Grab a tissue box and let’s take a look.

‘I Play Rocky’

Struggling actor writes a movie and demands he play the lead. The actor: Sylvester Stallone. The movie? “Rocky.”

Oscar pedigree: Director Peter Farrelly made the 2019 best picture winner “Green Book.” And “Rocky,” of course, took the top prize in 1977.

Forget the crowds. Were the critics pleased? Sits at an OK 68 on review aggregator Metacritic.

Sympathy for the hero? Anthony Ippolito plays Stallone as a cuddly, quixotic figure whose biggest flaw is that he believes in himself too much.

Secret weapon: As was the case half a century ago, Butkus the bullmastiff steals every scene he’s in. And Tracy Letts plays another glorious grump, in this case a studio exec none too happy with Stallone’s stubbornness.

Tears? Of joy, yes! But only if “Rocky” makes you misty-eyed.

Cheers? [Spoiler alert] “Rocky” wins! Cue Bill Conti’s “Gonna Fly Now” one more time!

Faith in humanity restored? As far as actors writing their own tickets, I’m more of a “Good Will Hunting” guy. But the movie is a lesson on the value of determination. The next time my wife suggests we order out the bird on Thanksgiving, I’m now inspired to say, “I Cook Turkey.”

Verdict: Hollywood loves scrappy self-mythology. It could be a contender.

‘Club Kid’

Hard-partying queer club promoter sobers up when he learns he has a 10-year-old son.

Oscar pedigree: Producer Alex Coco won best picture two years ago for “Anora,” which has the same chaotic energy as “Club Kid.”

Forget the crowds. Were the critics pleased? Very much so. It has an 80 score on Metacritic.

Sympathy for the hero? Writer-director Jordan Firstman wrote himself a part, just like Stallone. His Peter starts as a congenial cokehead and then discovers a new outlook on life, all thanks to fatherhood.

Secret weapon: Reggie Absolom is poised and adorable as the cool kid who shows up at Peter’s door. He likes the Cocteau Twins and Björk? Can I adopt him?

Tears? When the complications arrive, as they must because somebody has to question the wisdom of Peter raising this child, you will feel for our protagonist as Firstman taps into his vulnerabilities in a way that will disarm even the hardest of hearts.

Cheers? The ending is grounded and thoughtful, and the movie is all the better for it.

Faith in humanity restored? In many respects, yes. Don’t we all want to love someone so much that we’d spend $300 to buy their favorite album on vinyl?

Verdict: A24 has so many best picture contenders this year — “You Can See Everything,” “The Invite,” “The Debut” — that the Oscar victory would be for Firstman to earn an original screenplay nod, a strong possibility.

‘Being Heumann’

Judy Heumann leads the fight for access for the disabled.

Oscar pedigree: Director Siân Heder, who co-wrote the movie with Rebekah Taussig, won an Oscar for writing the 2022 best picture winner “CODA.”

Forget the crowds. Were the critics pleased? Eh. It’s at a 63 on Metacritic.

Sympathy for the hero? The world needs more defiant activists like Heumann, a woman who forgoes politeness for righteous anger at an indifferent world.

Secret weapon: Lead Ruth Madeley brings Heumann’s fire and wit and, yes, abrasiveness to life with a complexity that serves the film’s tough-minded subject well.

Tears? “Being Heumann” does not approach the emotional catharsis that “CODA” wrung out of its audience, which, I’d guess from watching the movie, Heumann would appreciate. (Heumann died in 2023.)

Cheers? I don’t think you need a spoiler alert. Just look around at every public building and sidewalk. Activism can work!

Faith in humanity restored? Heumann never stopped. The movie ends with a striking wide shot of Heumann in her wheelchair in front of the steps of the Capitol in Washington, not a ramp in sight, shaking her head, saying that this won’t do.

Verdict: It’s an inspiring film about a woman few people know even though we see the impact of her work every day. But the storytelling is a little too cute and formulaic for it to go far with the film academy.

‘Mr. Irrelevant’

The last player chosen in the 1983 NFL draft, John Tuggle makes the team. But his fight has only just begun, as he’s diagnosed with cancer the following year.

Oscar pedigree: Michael Shannon, playing New York Giants head coach Bill Parcells, has two nominations.

Forget the crowds. Were the critics pleased? It has yet to screen for critics. But strong audience test scores prompted Paramount to give the movie a prime Christmas Day release date.

Sympathy for the hero? More than once, Tuggle (played by David Corenswet, last seen as Superman) tells people that he’s “kinda likable.” He is! He might be the sunniest character this side of the “Air Bud” golden retriever.

Secret weapon: Tuggle’s mustache is epic.

Tears? Parcells cries. (Well, almost.) You think you’re tougher than Parcells?

Cheers? It’s an inspirational sports movie. Tug-gle! Tug-gle! Tug-gle!

Faith in humanity restored? Next time it rains, I’m going outside and running wind sprints for an hour.

Verdict: Peak dad-core, but no awards. However, if dads get to pick the movie the family goes to see during the holidays, this is going to be it. Unless they live in Philly.

The post Only one of these Oscar contenders is likely to land a best picture nom. Which will it be? appeared first on Los Angeles Times.

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