Republicans are marinating in gloom following the midterm elections, and fair enough. They ought to spend time considering the course that led them to lose so spectacularly in Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Mississippi. But the pessimism about their party’s chances in 2028, which has some people suggesting that Vice President JD Vance write off the year and wait for a better one, is overdone.
A smart version of that narrative comes from the political analyst Nate Silver. He points out that Donald Trump is unpopular and unlikely to make a “hard pivot” to the center on both style and policy. The next Republican nominee will therefore have to create distance from an unpopular incumbent without arousing his wrath. Silver also notes that this year’s races resembled the 2006 midterms. Two years later, Barack Obama led the Democrats to a landslide.
Some elections are unwinnable. Democrats were never going to beat Ronald Reagan in 1984, no matter who they nominated or what the nominee said. Republicans had no chance of winning in 1996 or 2008, either. But it’s much too soon to say the Republican nomination isn’t worth having in 2028.
What those examples show is that the key unknown variable is the economy. Republicans were behind but competitive in 2008 until the financial meltdown that fall. High prices, and especially high energy prices, did a lot to determine this year’s election results. But a bad economy in 2028 isn’t inevitable. Trump could engineer, or accept, an end to the Iran war that lets oil flow more freely. The Federal Reserve could finally raise interest rates enough to bring inflation down to a more tolerable level. If it moves fast, the central bank might even be able to bring rates back down in 2028.
Though Trump has rarely been popular, the pre-covid economy buoyed him enough that it started to look like he might easily win the 2020 election. The United States already has high employment rates. If that held while inflation and interest rates moderated, Trump’s approval rating would almost certainly rise a few points as former supporters came back to him.
Republicans will also likely recover some lost ground thanks to the nature of the 2028 race. Turnout is higher in presidential years than in midterms. Of people who voted in 2024, more Kamala Harris supporters than Trump supporters marked ballots this fall. First-time voters also skewed left. Soft Republican voters and new voters who lean right should be easier to motivate to vote in 2028. In midterms, voters tend to concentrate on the downsides of the incumbent party. On one side is the president, on the other a bunch of candidates who are criticizing him. In presidential elections, voters are more likely to weigh the pros and cons of each side before making a choice.
The Democrats could nominate someone with a record well to the left of the public — or a candidate who had to adopt left-wing positions to win the nomination. Voters were able to elect Democratic candidates for Congress and governor this year in the confidence that it wouldn’t bring back Joe Biden’s border policies. They may not have the same confidence in two years.
The idea that Vance should pass on 2028 — advice the Wall Street Journal reports he has received from “a longtime confidant” — is gaining more credence than it deserves because of the shock of the midterms. Vance is unlikely ever to have as strong a position in the nominating contest as he does now, as the sitting vice president. Trump is unlikely to have as tight a grip on the Republican electorate in 2032 as he does now. In a competitive two-party system, winning one of the party’s presidential nominations means you’re a few lucky breaks away from the White House. If Vance thinks he’d have Trump’s public blessing in running, he would be crazy to wait.
None of that means that he will win. The Fed could fail, or the Iran war could remain a debacle, or Trump’s corruption could damage his party’s reputation too deeply. Succeeding a president of your own party is always a challenge, and it may be that Republicans would have a better chance of winning with someone less tied to Trump. But defeat isn’t guaranteed, either. The blue tidal wave drowned a lot of Republican candidates. The thing about tides, though, is that they go back out.
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