Heavy rain and strong winds hitting much of the Northeast on Thursday will bring with them the first real taste of winter for millions of people.
A narrow strip between Philadelphia and New York could see thunderstorms that could bring one to three inches of rain in a short amount of time, which could lead to some flash flooding. National Weather Service experts in severe storms said there was a chance that more intense storms could produce hail and maybe even a tornado or two.
As the rain clears, it will be followed by a sharp drop in temperature as an Arctic chill spreads across the Midwest and down the East Coast. The sweeping front will bring the season’s first freeze to the Deep South and the first snow to parts of the Great Lakes and the Northeast, forecasters said.
But exactly who will see snow over the next few days remained uncertain on Thursday. It depends largely on the evolution of the storm system moving through the region and whether colder air wraps around the storm quickly enough to cause the rain to change to snow.
Marc Chenard, a meteorologist at the Weather Prediction Center, an arm of the National Weather Service, said on Thursday that the snow would most likely stay mainly across higher elevations, where two to four inches were possible.
“But there’s a chance some areas could get over six inches,” he said. “Most likely for the Catskills region and into southern Vermont.”
At lower elevations, the snow is expected to be limited, if there is any. Forecasters said rain was more likely, with some snow mixed in, especially if precipitation becomes heavy. Mr. Chenard said it was unlikely to accumulate.
The storm is expected to evolve, however, and may increase the chance of how much snow accumulates. As the initial system moves offshore, another system is expected to develop close to the New Jersey coast later Thursday.
Mr. Chenard said the two systems could help keep precipitation going for longer, while drawing even colder air into the region and farther south. This could allow snow levels to fall far enough for some valleys to see light accumulating snow.
“This could also help snowfall accumulations be a little bit higher in the elevations than they otherwise would be,” he said.
As the colder air seeps south, snow could also develop across the higher elevations of West Virginia and over the North Carolina and Tennessee border. Forecasters said it was likely to be a mix of rain and snow there, too.
Areas around the Great Lakes region are expected to see rain and snow through Friday, as strong winds blow across the lakes, which are unusually warm right now, forecasters said. The heaviest snow is expected in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, especially across the Huron Mountains, where more than a foot is possible.
Repeated bands of lake-effect snow could also bring up to four inches to parts of Michigan, northeastern Illinois and northwestern Indiana.
Behind the storm system, temperatures are expected to plummet to around five to 10 degrees below normal, as polar air from Canada surges southward across much of the central and Eastern United States. By Friday, daytime highs are forecast to be in the 40s and 50s, while overnight temperatures are expected to fall into the 20s — temperatures more typical of early December, forecasters said.
By Saturday morning, freezing temperatures are expected to reach the Deep South, bringing the potential for a widespread frost and freeze, the first of the season for many, Mr. Chenard said.
Despite the abrupt change from recent mild weather, he said the cold in the South was “about on schedule” for the time of year, noting that the average date of the first freeze occurs from late October into early November across the region. Along the Gulf Coast, however, it would be relatively early, he said.
The cold is expected to linger into next week, with below-average temperatures lasting through Tuesday, before they slowly begin to recover in the middle of the week, Mr. Chenard said.
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