Beijing has confirmed for the first time that it is discussing a historic meeting between Chinese leader Xi Jinping, President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Mao Ning, a spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry, said at a press briefing this week in Beijing that China “is in communication with relevant parties regarding a meeting between the three heads of state.”
Nothing is set, but the three-leader gathering would take place this month on the sidelines of a regional summit in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen.
If it happens, it would be historic. Experts, however, say the three leaders are unlikely to discuss anything substantive because their interests are at odds, but they would gather for a photo, with China carefully choreographing the meeting.
“I think it will happen. The question is the format and the content,” said Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center. “China wants the image but not the costs.”
Beijing is the host of this year’s leaders summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, a 21-member grouping that includes the US and Russia.
Trump is expected to travel to Shenzhen to meet Xi for the third time this year, maintaining a fragile trade truce that is set to expire in January.
In a sign that tensions persist, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in a Friday video call with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng urged Beijing to take “concrete actions to fully implement its past commitments, particularly as they relate to agricultural purchases, rare earths, and other critical minerals,” according to a statement from Greer’s office.
China’s official news agency Xinhua reported Saturday that both sides had in-depth and constructive exchanges in the call, and that China expressed concerns about Washington’s restrictive economic and trade measures against Beijing.
While he’s in China, Trump has said he would be interested in meeting Xi and Putin to discuss nuclear arms controls, though Putin is focused on talking about the war in Ukraine without Kyiv at the table.
“Putin has the most to gain from a leaders’ trilateral, and the Russians are clearly behind the push for a meeting, which would be a diplomatic coup,” said Danny Russel, a former senior State Department official who served in former President Barack Obama’s administration.
Trump, with his “crush on authoritarian strongmen,” would love the meeting, though he clearly has been warned by his advisers to steer clear of Ukraine as a topic of the discussions, said Russel, who is now a distinguished fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
Sun of the Stimson Center said Russia would likely use the summit to nudge China and the US closer to Moscow’s positions on Ukraine, while “China will have to manage Russian manipulation.”
China also would not engage in talks on arms controls or discussions about Ukraine or Iran, other than its diplomatic refrain that peace is important and wars should end, Sun said.
Beijing’s biggest challenge may be the perception. The summit “should not be equated to three great powers dividing up the world,” she said.
The meeting may amount to no more than a photo opportunity that would allow Putin to be seen next to US and Chinese leaders, said Craig Singleton, senior director of the China program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
“But these photo opportunities have diminishing diplomatic returns,” Singleton said. “The spectacle may be historic without producing anything particularly consequential.”
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