With Democrats poised to flip the House and Senate in Tuesday’s midterm elections, the conventional wisdom is that the patterns of this polarized era will repeat themselves over the next two years: A crossfire of Democratic-led investigations and executive orders will keep Congress and President Donald Trump at war while some of the nation’s biggest problems are left to fester. It’s true that there will be strong, maybe even overwhelming, pressures within both parties to continue political combat, but gridlock is a choice.
The case for clash writes itself. Democrats promise to conduct vigorous oversight, including subpoenas of the president’s family members. “Lawyer up,” said Rep. Robert Garcia (D-California), the incoming chairman of the House Oversight Committee. Asked what would happen if the opposition won, Trump said he will “veto everything” in an interview the New York Post published on Monday: “I guess I’ll become Mr. Veto.”
Democrats could pass a war powers resolution to try to stop the conflict with Iran, for example, but Trump could veto it, and there probably wouldn’t be a two-thirds majority to override him. The same goes for trying to undo Trump’s tariffs.
Congress’s tying the president’s hands legislatively would probably require a significant number of Republican defections. Some House Republicans might be so inclined, but the lesson of the past decade is that Trump has the power to destroy the career of any GOP politician who crosses him. Trump has never been more unpopular with the country overall, but he will continue to hold enormous sway inside his party.
At the same time, Democratic leaders are widely expected to be scared of a handful of new members aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) has an easy path to becoming House speaker, but the June primaries in his hometown showed the limits of his influence when challengers backed by New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, defeated two House incumbents. Another New Yorker, Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer, is up for reelection in 2028 and faces a potential primary challenge from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. That threat might discourage him from negotiating in good faith with the White House.
But look closer, and there is a strong case for unexpected levels of cooperation, or at least compromise, over the next two years. The DSA will be a thorn in the side of leadership, but socialists are going to remain a small faction within the House Democratic Caucus. With perhaps one or two exceptions, depending on the outcome of races that haven’t been called yet, the Democrats who will face tough reelection contests in 2028 are going to be moderates who flipped purple districts on Tuesday. Jeffries needs these frontline members to show voters they can govern while in the majority, and fighting Trump tooth and nail on every issue won’t be enough.
Democrats had a good night on Tuesday because of Trump’s unpopularity, driven by persistent inflation, overzealous immigration enforcement, the Iran war and tariffs. The people who voted for Trump two years ago and backed Democrats in the midterms could swing back if they think Jeffries is beholden to the DSA. Many independent voters continue to view both parties negatively. Democrats will hold them only by focusing on pocketbook issues such as health care, as well as crime and immigration. That might be a tall order.
Independents sometimes seem to be wandering with a lantern, in search of a party that will finally practice the sort of free-market policies that have long nourished the nation’s prosperity.
Trump himself is a wild card. At heart, he is a dealmaker. Like the Democratic leaders in the House and Senate, he’s a native New Yorker. Indeed, he was a registered Democrat there until 2009.
After saying he would veto “everything” if Democrats win, Trump told the New York Post: “And then at some point, we’ll probably make deals.” If Democrats passed a bill to increase premium subsidies for the Affordable Care Act, for instance, Trump might agree to sign it in exchange for some concession he cares about. Trump’s relationship with Mamdani underscores the possibility. The president attacked him mercilessly during the campaign but now seems to genuinely enjoy spending time with the New York mayor.
Democrats will be aggressive about investigations, but party leaders privately say they don’t want to impeach Trump a third time, even if they think he deserves it. It’s probably wishful thinking, but there is some chance that Trump won’t take intrusive oversight as personally as many expect because he plans to preemptively pardon his close aides and family members anyway.
There is precedent for compromise from Trump’s first term. Even after Democrats impeached him over his dealings with Ukraine, he wound up negotiating with them to pass pandemic relief bills. Of course, he was running for reelection.
One issue cries out for finding common ground: the looming fiscal cliff America is approaching. Neither Trump nor Democratic leaders seem to have any appetite for a grand bargain on entitlement reform. Failure to act would be tragic.
Social Security’s main trust fund is projected to be insolvent by mid-2032. Under the status quo, retirees face an automatic 26 percent cut in benefits. Trump and Democrats may be content to let the next president inherit the mess, though the senators elected on Tuesday will be in office when the trust fund can no longer cover its obligations.
The American people have decided to try divided government. That doesn’t mean they chose paralysis in the face of an impending fiscal emergency.
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