There are thousands of elections being held across the country Tuesday. But especially when it comes to control of Congress, only a fraction are competitive. Of those, here are the five to watch to see whether Democrats are going to sweep into power for the final two years of President Donald Trump’s time in office.
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1. A House race in Kentucky
One of the first competitive House races where we could get results is in Kentucky. Polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern in Kentucky, which is the earliest in the nation. There’s an open House seat in a largely White, pro-Trump district. Yet Democrat Zach Dembo is making it a competitive race against Republican Ralph Alvarado.
If Democrats win Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District, they have a good shot at taking back the House majority by a sizable margin. Democrats need a net gain of three seats to win back the House majority, and there are dozens of Republican-held House seats that are more Democratic-leaning than this one.
2. Ohio’s Senate race
Among states with truly competitive Senate races, polls close first in Ohio.
In North Carolina, Democrats are already expecting to pick up their first Senate seat on their possible path to a majority. They will need to pick up at least three more to take back the majority.
Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) is running against a well-known figure in Ohio politics, former senator Sherrod Brown (D), who some voters in Ohio still think is a senator. Ohio may be the first state to also demonstrate how voters reacted to Trump’s unpopular tariffs, which have hit farm country and made races in states like Iowa and Kansas competitive.
3. and 4. Michigan and Maine Senate races
Watch these two states to see whether Republicans can block Democrats’ chances of winning a Senate majority.
Democrats’ path to the Senate majority goes through states that have voted for Trump multiple times, by double digits. Yet Michigan and Maine are two comparatively more Democratic-leaning states with competitive Senate races that Democrats could struggle to win.
Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) has been difficult for Democrats to unseat, and she’s running for a sixth term. Michigan has an open Senate seat, and the Democratic candidate, Abdul El-Sayed, has courted controversy and campaigned on liberal views that some Michigan Democrats fear will jeopardize a seat they should win in this political environment.
A loss in either of these states probably means Democrats will need to win in almost all of the other competitive Senate races in decidedly more conservative states including Iowa, Texas, Kansas and Alaska.
5. Iowa’s governor’s race
Democrats also have a chance to win a majority of governor’s mansions for the first time in over a decade. One that could signal whether that happens is in Iowa. The Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Rob Sand, has the momentum over Republican Zach Lahn.
Democrats could also pick up governor’s mansions in Ohio, Alaska, Nevada, Georgia and — in a really good night for Democrats — Texas.
“Democrats could flip as many as five, six or even seven governor’s races,” said Lou Jacobson, chief author of the 2026 “Almanac of American Politics.”
There are also state legislative races on the ballot. A Washington Post analysis of governor’s and state legislative races finds Democrats could break up full Republican control in as many as six states and win unified control in as many as seven of their own. That means Democrats could rewrite policy on redistricting, abortion, climate, education and taxes in more states than ever in the Trump era.
For some of the first results, read The Early Brief from The Washington Post.
Amber Phillips writes The 5-Minute Fix newsletter, a quick analysis of the day’s biggest political news. Send her an email here, or ask a question that could be featured in an upcoming newsletter.
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