Abdul El-Sayed vowed in May to “smoke” former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI) by 7 points, and on Tuesday, Michigan’s Democratic senator-elect did exactly that, down to the hundredth of a percentage point, leaving onlookers floored.
“Sensational,” wrote journalist Mohammad Alsaafin in awe of the accuracy of El-Sayed’s bold prediction.
In early May, as El-Sayed surged to the front of the pack ahead of Michigan’s August Democratic primary, reports began warning that his rise would clear an easier path for Rogers in the general election. Undeterred, El-Sayed made an audacious prediction.
“Gimme three months and [Rogers’] golf buddies in Florida wouldn’t even vote for him. I’ll smoke him by 7. Bet on it,” El-Sayed wrote on May 3 in a social media post on X.
Exactly six months to the day on Tuesday, El-Sayed would go on to defeat Rogers in the closely watched race, and by a margin of exactly 7 points, down to the hundredth of a percentage point, according to The New York Times as of Wednesday morning, with more than 95% of the vote reported.
“This was dismissed as swagger but El-Sayed did in fact smoke him by 7,” wrote journalist Jeet Heer, who writes for The Nation, in a social media post on X Wednesday.
Countless others, including Politico’s Adam Wren, Democratic political strategist Christopher Hale and The Wall Street Journal’s Sabrina Siddiqui also expressed shock that El-Sayed had predicted his own victory with such accuracy.
“Had to feel really good to press post on that one,” wrote journalist Natalie Korach in a social media post on X, referencing El-Sayed resharing his May 3 post on Wednesday.
El-Sayed’s victory came despite fierce opposition, much of it fueled by his outspoken criticism of Israel. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, spent nearly $30 million against him — its largest investment in a single race — while President Donald Trump and other Republicans accused him of extremism. His defeated primary rival, Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI), went so far as to endorse Rogers two days before the election.
El-Sayed is up by 7 points, exactly as he predicted to me on the day of the primary. — Adam Wren (@adamwren) November 4, 2026
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