For two years, the world has weathered President Trump’s domineering unilateralism, enduring up-and-down tariffs, a war with Iran, aggression in Latin America, abrupt reversals on Ukraine, and a fusillade of demands for allies including Canada, Germany and Japan.
Now, with Democrats having taken control of Congress as nearly all of Mr. Trump’s preferred Republicans fall to defeat, many countries are debating what to expect from yet another case of American political whiplash.
Some analysts suggest a new Congress might slow President Trump’s most impulsive urges. Online, there was some obvious celebration. On Weibo, China’s dominant social media platform, the hashtag “Trump suffered a complete and utter defeat” was trending as results were announced.
But because presidents have enormous leeway with foreign policy, one persistent question emerged from Asia to Europe: Will the electoral losses at home spur Mr. Trump toward even more aggressive actions around the globe?
“In response to a Democrat-controlled Congress,” said Ja-Ian Chong, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, “Trump could try to find distractions elsewhere, including on tariffs and the use of force.”
Countries around the world are assessing how the American elections results might affect the most pressing issues in international affairs.
War With Iran
In Asia, which is heavily reliant on energy from the Middle East, the Democratic victory initially produced a wisp of optimism.
“In Southeast Asia, the main challenge has been inflationary pressure caused by the war in Iran. That’s made everything a lot more expensive,” Mr. Chong said. “Now there’s hope for some sort of reprieve.”
And yet, he and many others doubt that notion. Many countries have expressed concern that the war with Iran would continue escalating in the short-term — perhaps with Mr. Trump striking Iran again after the elections — worsening the squeeze on oil and gas supplies.
For now, the mood remains more grim than gleeful: Oil prices are expected to stay high for the foreseeable future, challenging businesses and leaving many to wonder what Mr. Trump might do next.
Tariffs
U.S. trade investigators have spent months probing more than a dozen countries accused of labor violations and overproducing everything from chemicals to cars. Now that the White House is no longer concerned about drawing attention to inflation before the elections, countries might expect a reinvigorated push to impose tariffs.
Japan, China and Vietnam are all likely targets for additional tariffs. In many countries, new levies would come on top of existing ones, lifting rates back toward where they were before the Supreme Court struck down earlier tariffs in February.
Mr. Trump still has sweeping powers over trade. Congress, however, could use its newfound leverage over the federal budget and its oversight authority to shape some of the details.
“You might see Congress pushing for more tariff carve outs and exceptions in categories that affect their constituent’s pocket books,” said Stephen Olson, a former U.S. trade negotiator and visiting fellow at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.
Generally, in Asia and elsewhere, many expect American protectionism to keep marching on, with a president seeking to leave a legacy and still determined to bend the global economy toward his views.
“People are deeply uneasy about the Trump administration’s past actions and remain anxious about the future,” said Kazuhiro Maeshima, a professor of American politics and diplomacy at Sophia University in Tokyo, discussing the mood in Japan. “While there is a hope for change, whether that change will actually materialize is unknown.”
Rivalry With China
The American elections were not expected to alter the direction of U.S.-China relations, especially regarding their on-again, off-again trade truce. Both political parties have increasingly agreed to take a tougher posture on China when it comes to economic competition and disputes over contested territory.
But on Weibo, a leading Chinese social media platform, the early results led to some initial gloating at President Trump’s expense.
Xu Shaolin, a prominent commentator with nearly 4 million followers, wrote that if the losses held in both houses of Congress “this unreliable president who talks big, but is prone to making empty promises, will likely become a lame duck.”
Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing, predicted nonetheless that the Democrats’ success in Tuesday’s elections would mean trouble for relations between the United States and China.
Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, and President Trump reached an understanding at a summit in May summit in favor of what China defines as “constructive, strategic stability.” But Mr. Shi predicted that this understanding would break down “because Trump suddenly becomes far from all-powerful.”
A Democratic Congress might also strengthen America’s relations with traditional United States allies, including Japan, which he said would also not be good for China.
U.S. Alliances and Leadership
Mr. Trump has threatened his country’s own partners and allies with everything from tariffs to bombs. And in some of the once-friendly nations that Mr. Trump has alienated, the public reaction veered toward relief or celebration of the Democratic wins on Tuesday.
Ryan Cox, a philosophy lecturer at the University of Sydney, said Wednesday that he was hoping to see the Democrats “slow down the power of Trump,” to accelerate “the end of the Trump era.”
Luka Leveque, a Japanese university student in Tokyo, said he was hoping “for greater consistency — both in the approach taken between our two nations and in the continuity of U.S. policy over time.”
And yet, with two years of the Trump administration to go, skepticism about his transactional leadership style and reliability remains deeply entrenched. In a recent poll of 34 countries published by the Rockefeller Foundation, just 39 percent of respondents said they were comfortable with the United States leading on the world stage.
As Max Yoeli, a senior research fellow at Chatham House in London, noted just before the election: “A president who has made it his business to be a shock to the system retains the capacity to deliver one.”
Even in Australia, which has fought alongside America in every major war since World War I, doubts remain. Dan Ramsay, a University of Sydney politics student, said Wednesday that it would be risky for any country to jump back into relying too heavily on the United States.
“We need to take more seriously our dependencies in a whole bunch of areas and think about how we can maintain an alliance and partnership with the U.S., while also looking elsewhere and strengthening those ties with middle powers around the world,” he said.
Reporting was contributed by Pei-Lin Wu in Kaohsiung, Taiwan; Keith Bradsher in Beijing, Laura Chung in Sydney, Javier C. Hernández and Kiuko Notoya in Tokyo, Max Kim in Seoul and Pragati K.B. in New Delhi.
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