Republicans in Texas are reading Gov. Greg Abbott’s election night plans as a sign that his campaign is nervous, according to MS NOW national affairs analyst John Heilemann.
Reporting from Austin on “Morning Joe” Tuesday, Heilemann said the Democratic wave many expect in the Senate race could spill into the governor’s race. He said internal polling he’d heard about shows Democrat Gina Hinojosa ahead of Abbott.
“There’s a bunch of internal polling around here that has [Gina] Hinojosa up by 1 or 2 in the in the Texas governor’s race,” Heilemann said.
He then offered what he called “a nice small anecdotal detail.” Republicans told him the governor is holding his election night party in Austin. That’s unusual, they said, for a candidate who typically celebrates elsewhere when he feels secure.
“They all point out that the man has won three successive terms as governor, and when he is confident of his prospects in a race, he tends to go to a red part of the state to throw his victory party,” Heilemann said.
The Austin location, he said, “sent a loud signal to a lot of people that at a minimum, the… campaign there is not confident about… where their race stands with Hinojosa.”
Heilemann said the excitement around Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico could help carry Hinojosa. “It’s possible that Talarico, all the grassroots strength that he’s driven and all the Democratic money that he’s drawn into the state, that some of that may end up helping Hinojosa break that… streak,” he said.
He also said he couldn’t find anyone in either party who expects Republican Ken Paxton to win the Senate race.
“I couldn’t find any Democrat or Republican who doesn’t think James Talarico is going to win,” Heilemann said on Tuesday. “Nobody, not a single person arguing that Paxton is going to win.”
Heilemann cited a Times poll released Monday showing Talarico up 7 points. He said some internal polling from super PACs and campaign committees has Talarico “in that neighborhood.”
Abbott, who was first elected in 2014, is seeking a fourth term. Texas hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since Ann Richards in 1990.
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