With millions of voters having cast their ballots already, experts say the weather likely won’t determine the outcome of Tuesday’s elections, even with rain in the forecast for states with competitive races, such as Texas, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi and Florida.
But then again, it could.
Weather has always been an uncontrollable and slightly unpredictable factor in elections.
In recent decades, scientists have turned years of anecdotes into rigorous analyses of voting and weather data. Their conclusion: Yes, weather can indeed (slightly) influence turnout.
Overall, Tuesday is shaping up to be a “pretty tranquil day,” with the East Coast and West Coast looking clear and comfortable, said Jennifer Tate, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. The exceptions will be portions of the central United States and Florida.
There will be at least some risk of thunderstorms from Iowa to Texas on Tuesday, and pockets of excessive rain that could lead to minor flash flooding.
Where the worst storms are likely on Tuesday:
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Florida: Rain has been falling heavily across the state over the past few days, at times measuring more than a foot in a few hours. Although the rain is expected to continue on Tuesday across portions of the state, Ms. Tate said it should be lighter than the downpours that hit on Sunday and Monday.
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Texas: The tail end of a weather system dragged through the state on Monday afternoon and overnight. It is expected to continue producing severe storms in the early morning hours as it passes through East Texas, but it should clear the state by early afternoon.
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Mississippi: There could be an influx of severe thunderstorms in Mississippi on Tuesday with the potential for excessive rain, especially in the north. There is also a risk of tornadoes and strong winds as a band of storms moves through. These storms are expected to form in a line and will likely be fairly short-lived.
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Kansas: Voters may see some early morning rain, but, as in Texas, the skies should clear as the day progresses.
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Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota: The top of the storm system will sit over the Midwest. The storms there may not be intense, but lighter rain could linger for most of the day, with waves of showers expected.
How much does the weather matter?
It depends on whom you ask, and ongoing research continues to examine the trends in weather and voter turnout.
Bad weather in one or two tight districts could affect an outcome by keeping some voters at home, Kasper M. Hansen, a political science professor at the University of Copenhagen and an author of a study on weather and turnout, told The New York Times in 2024.
In that study, he found that what he termed “marginal voters” — people who only occasionally turn out to vote — are more likely to opt out if Election Day arrives with consistent, miserable rain.
Thomas Fujiwara, an associate professor of economics and international affairs at Princeton University, has also found that rainfall lowers turnout, though by modest amounts. He is an author of a 2016 paper that examined the effect of rain on one election and whether it reverberated in future cycles.
On Monday, Mr. Fujiwara said he hadn’t conducted any new research on elections and weather since then. But he noted that the impact on turnout is likely smaller today than in the period he analyzed (1948 to 2012), because a larger share of the electorate now votes early or by mail.
On the other hand, Mr. Hansen, suggested that recent research suggests that bad weather continues to suppress turnout, “especially on the marginal voter (e.g., young voters).”
Mr. Hansen’s research has shown that die-hard voters aren’t likely to be deterred by the weather. Those people tend to vote early, or will stand in line in any conditions. Instead, he has found, the people most likely to avoid voting in inclement weather are those for whom voting doesn’t fit easily into a busy schedule, or those living alone — typically people ages 21 to 30.
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