CAMP HILL, Pennsylvania — Karen Shanafelter needed one word to describe how she feels about the positive polls she is seeing for Democrats nationwide: “Dread.”
Shanafelter’s trepidation is common among the most die-hard Democrats. Despite seeing poll after poll that shows the party in position to win key races in Tuesday’s midterm elections, many are filled with unease, like traumatized sports fans who’ve seen their team blow it in the fourth quarter too many times.
“It’s hard to believe the polls,” Shanafelter said as she waited to hear from Democratic House candidate Janelle Stelson at an event in Camp Hill, Pennsylvania.
Stelson is running against Rep. Scott Perry, a Republican first elected in 2012, in a highly competitive central Pennsylvania race. Shanafelter recalled how polls led her to believe Hillary Clinton would win in 2016, how Kamala Harris would win in 2024, and even that Stelson would oust Perry when they ran against each other two years ago. Stelson came up about 5,000 votes short.
President Donald Trump’s win in 2024 “was just like a shock to our systems,” she said.
Polls and prognostications have Democrats as the favorite to win the House on Tuesday night, and possibly the Senate, too. But Democrats are too consumed with their own agita to trust them.
The poor national environment for Republicans, captured by Trump’s lower approval rating and powered by high prices, has Democrats competitive in deep-red states like South Carolina, Texas and Kansas.
Celeste Pecorelli, an 18-year-old college student in South Carolina, voted in her first election alongside her parents.
“I want to have hope. I really, really do,” said Pecorelli, who backed Democrats this year while voting in James Island, South Carolina. “I really am proud to be an American, but I do feel like some of the people in power right now are putting a bad rep out there for the world.”
Democrats have a shot at winning the state’s Senate seat, with Republican Sen. Darline Graham’s missteps — such as admitting she knows little about national security — giving Democratic challenger Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, a shot at becoming the first Democrat since 1998 to win a Senate seat in South Carolina. The House race between Republican Jenny Honeycutt and Democrat Nancy Lacore is also competitive, giving Democratic voters in red states like Pecorelli another viable option.
“We’re halfway through, two more years. How much worse could it get?” Darlynne Pecorelli, Celeste’s mother, said about Trump’s second term.
“I’ve heard that before,” Celeste exclaimed before running to knock on a nearby wooden pole to erase the jinx.
Nearby, Valerie Chamorro, a 40-year-old teacher, tried to retrain optimism.
“It feels possible,” Chamorro said of Democrats winning in South Carolina. “I’m hopeful Democrats can win back the House. That’s why I’m here, right?”
The feeling is similar in Texas, another Republican bastion that hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide since 1994.
“I am optimistic, but I’m still concerned,” said Diantha Steinhilper, an art history professor in Fort Worth who voted early for state Rep. James Talarico (D) in the Senate race against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R).
A former Republican, Steinhilper said she started voting Democratic after President Donald Trump’s first run in 2016. She backed Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 run but also voted for Sen. John Cornyn (R) in his 2020 reelection campaign.
O’Rourke’s race — in which polls showed him with a clear shot at defeating incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018 — was a major letdown for Democrats, with some in Texas describing the disappointment much like many recall Hillary Clinton’s loss to Trump in 2016.
“I would probably be over the moon, like joyful,” Mike Hughes, a 60-year-old physical therapist, said while imagining a Talarico victory. “But I’m just so used to getting beaten in this.”
Thinking back to O’Rourke’s loss, Hughes lamented: “Maybe that’s where I got my hopes crushed.”
That feeling was shared at a rally for Talarico in Houston, where supporter after supporter was reminding themselves not to get their hopes up.
“There’s definitely some anxiety,” said Laura Zamora, 37, a corporate communications manager, but she added: “Seeing the turnout, there’s a lot of hope for turning Texas blue.”
For some, the dread is far more personal.
Iona Bruckner’s husband is a Mexican immigrant whose temporary legal status under the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program is imperiled. Bruckner, 46, has seen ICE raids at local pharmacies and grocery stores, and his “whole family is in fear.”
The two architects could be forced to move to Mexico with their two young children after the election unless Democrats win and protect the program, she said: “It’s a really existential crisis.”
Democratic candidates are feeling the dread, too.
Shortly before speaking to Shanafelter at one of the final rallies for her campaign, Stelson said she may be the most negative person on her own campaign.
“I probably believe worse than anybody else because I’ve seen him win and win and win,” Stelson said, explaining why she usually rejects good news from her campaign manager.
But she said this moment feels different. At a recent grocery store visit, Stelson said she saw a woman arguing with a store employee behind the meat counter, complaining about high prices.
“This is no longer complaining about the high cost,” Stelson said. “It’s people making choices because they can’t pay for their whole lives.”
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