Anthropic PBC’s initial public offering has plenty of hurdles to clear, and one of the biggest will hit Nov. 3, when U.S. midterm elections threaten to upend the political status quo that’s been broadly supportive of developing artificial intelligence at a breakneck pace.
Victories for AI-skeptic Democrats in one or both houses of Congress, as well as in key governor’s races, would likely increase the pressure on AI labs, particularly in debates over the rapid rollout of data centers. Republicans have broadly stuck closer to President Trump’s support for the technology.
Whatever happens, little is expected change before the IPO prices and the stock starts trading. Still, with Anthropic seeking to raise as much or more than SpaceX did in its record-setting $86.2-billion debut, and a market that’s dumped cold water on AI-related stocks in recent weeks, a changing of the guard risks shifting expectations around Anthropic’s ability to navigate the political landscape.
Data centers
While much of the attention is on the House and Senate, a key governor’s race holds an outsize influence on Anthropic’s data center footprint.
In Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott ordered the withholding of permits for new data centers until an audit of risks to the power grid is complete, asserting that “Texans come first.” His rival, Democratic nominee Gina Hinojosa, characterized his move as an “election year stunt.”
Anthropic has deals for multiple facilities in the state. Its $50-billion partnership with Fluidstack Ltd. — the company’s first major data center build-out that the Claude firm has taken on directly — will include locations in Texas and New York. It also has a $35-billion pact with Lambda for a data center in Nueces County and a $9.1-billion agreement with Riot Platforms Inc. for a campus in Rockdale.
One of its Texas data center deals has left banks holding onto debt to finance the facility’s construction. Banks are delaying plans to offload part of a $15-billion loan to fund a project being developed by Nexus Data Centers, Bloomberg News reported.
In a state where the legislature meets every other year, the governor has a lot of power to decide the policies that matter to growth.
“I think that the tone will be set by the governor there,” said Justin Teresi, litigation analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, in an interview. Whether or not the current all-out pause on permitting lasts, Teresi doesn’t expect policy to go back to the previous status quo.
“Maybe localities get a little bit more power,” he said. “Do you see something in Texas like we’ve seen in North Carolina or Illinois, for example, where one locality, like a county, blocks data centers through the moratorium, and then it spreads like wildfire through the state?”
In New York, Gov. Kathy Hochul is ahead of Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman in the polls, which suggests her July executive order on a pause of up to one year for large data centers consuming 50 megawatts or more is likely to remain in place.
To win over state officials, Anthropic and its partners may need to mount a charm offensive like the one Meta Platforms Inc. has attempted with its Hyperion data center in Louisiana, where it promised 500 full-time jobs by 2035.
“The industry has, until recently, done a really poor job of explaining benefits to communities from a financial standpoint,” Teresi said. “There are some states like Louisiana, where it does seem to be resonating now, where you’re seeing funding on education coming in that wasn’t there before.”
Congressional committees
There’s no shortage of topics for AI-skeptic politicians to grill executives over in congressional hearings, from Claude and other AI agents going rogue in incidents including submitting a false murder report, to the heated discussion of whether the technology might wipe humanity off the map.
Tech companies have been hiring lawyers and lobbyists in advance of potential hearings, particularly for those with ties to the president. Anthropic has more frequently found itself in the crosshairs of the Trump Administration because of its cautious stance, advocating for AI safety and a coordinated slowdown in the most advanced models.
Investigations and hearings can risk inviting negative headlines for AI labs. Still, the most likely potential outcome of the Democrats taking control of one or both houses of Congress is legislative stagnation, if Trump vetoes any proposal that’s too unfavorable to the technology industry.
“Many fear an AI selloff on assumed higher regulation, but it will be difficult to implement any policies as Trump has stated that he will not sign any bills that limit AI expansion and Dems cannot achieve a veto-proof majority in both chambers of Congress,” JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Market Intelligence desk led by Andrew Tyler wrote in a note to clients on Monday. “For those bullish on the AI, this is an opportunity to buy the dip, should it present itself.”
Morris writes for Bloomberg.
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