Political analysts were shocked Sunday after a set of polls showed Democrats having a significant advantage in multiple key midterm races.
The latest New York Times/Siena poll, the last Senate poll before Tuesday’s elections, showed Democratic candidates leading in state races such as Michigan, Texas, Maine, Ohio, Kansas, Alaska, and Iowa. The margins were as wide as Abdul El-Sayed’s 11-point advantage over Republican candidate Mike Rogers, to Josh Turek’s one-point advantage over Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) in the Hawkeye State.
The polls shocked several political analysts, who chimed in on social media.
Mark Mitchell, head pollster at The Honest Polling Company, posted on X that the polls suggested Republicans are in trouble on Tuesday.
“Wow. The Republicans are in trouble,” Mitchell wrote. “But this much trouble? Hard to say. It all depends on independent turnout and sentiment.”
Adam Carlson, founder of Zenith Strategies, was more conclusive in his analysis.
“Bloodbath,” Carlson posted on X.
Eric Michael Garcia, an MS NOW columnist, argued that the poll results must be intoxicating for Democrats.
“There are polls that hit like crack. But this poll must hit like black tar heroin for Democrats,” Garcia posted on X.
Piers Morgan, a political commentator, said the polls were part of a “big night” for the Democrats, which included Haley Stevens’ almost inconceivable endorsement of Republican Mike Rogers in the Michigan Senate race.
“Incredible night for Dems if this is what happens on Tuesday… possibly existential night for pollsters if it doesn’t,” Morgan noted on X.
NEWS: The last Senate polls of 2026 from NYT/Siena:From me and @RuthIgielnik https://t.co/inA3u2Urv9 https://t.co/vXlfPOKes1 — Shane Goldmacher (@ShaneGoldmacher) November 2, 2026
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